This week’s set-up is like a sequence from an action movie. The protagonist, who all of us hold a fantasy playoff spot, is fighting for his life. But this time, the same skill or ability doesn’t work. The situation looks grim. Yet, somehow, a hero appears. We barely know them, but they seem to have a way out. And, as in almost every movie with this plot, the mysterious newcomer asks the standard questions.
Do you believe me?
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Of course, the general answer is yes. In this case, there is no time for questions. Do it or die. Week 15 has the same vibe, win or go home. But we have a little time to delve into some unlikely championship-winning players that we may rely on. More importantly, is their situation worthy of our trust during the fantasy playoffs.
New (bad) problems for Vikings offense
The outcome of Sunday’s Vikings game is one of the reasons I don’t do much sports betting. To be clear, I’m not trying to imply that JJ McCarthy can’t play in the league. Honestly, his third return was the best we’ve ever seen from a Minnesota QB1.
However, this is where I could lose my life savings. If you told me McCarthy had three touchdown passes, I’d bet that Justin Jefferson had at least one. Depending on when you catch me, I might double down on Jefferson winning twice. But back to the video. I’ve only seen the ball go to No. 18 a few times.
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Target rates: 34% (Weeks 9-12), 18% (Week 14)
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Capture target rate: 61%, 50%
I know this is a sensational way to summarize the results, but McCarthy’s most efficient day as a passer occurred without his WR1 focusing on him. Again, I know this statement sounds like a clickbait. But Jordan Addison is the front-runner. Not just statistically (team-high 7 targets for 62 yards), but every advanced stat we got. Which brings me to a slightly sacrilegious statement: We need to ditch fantasy football here.
I know, please forgive me. But think about the “McCarthy experience” before Sunday. turnover. loss. That meme. This is a disaster. So it makes sense that head coach Kevin O’Connell would develop a game plan involving eight different players to achieve his goals. McCarthy’s average of less than seven yards per attempt (for the third time this season) seems reasonable. In other words, I wouldn’t be surprised to see similar results against the Cowboys. Furthermore, the Vikings’ point total overshadowed the bad parts of McCarthy’s great day.
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Pressure bag ratio: 19.3% (weeks 9-12), 33.3% (week 14)
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Complete percentage (with pressure): 46.5%, 33.3%
Bottom line: If you view Week 15 as a bounce-back point for Jefferson, you’re screwed. Since their bye, the Cowboys have the fifth-highest pressure rate. Even better, at least for Dallas fans, is that they have 2.3 sacks per game. McCarthy did throw a couple of passes to Jefferson in the end zone. So you can tell yourself a story about Jefferson’s score. But as the playoffs approach, I’ll find another option.
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A backup RB you can start in the playoffs
I’m willing to bet –
Wait, I just said in the last section that I’m not good at this. Okay, let’s pretend I know what I’m doing here. Regardless, I’m willing to bet on how most people will interpret Blake Curum’s second touchdown against the Cardinals.
“The score came in garbage time.”
“You can’t trust Corum. He’s shooting less than 40 percent.”
This idea just occurred to me, but it’s interesting how we (yes, I’m including you in this grouping) evaluate skill positions. A wide receiver can have a big game, like an 8-102-1 stat line in Week 13, and we’re ready to risk it all for them. No, I’m not upset with Adonai Mitchell, nor did I defend him Sunday morning (yes, yes, I did). Regardless, RB requires three forms of identification to enter the club. Without the majority of touches, and preferably not being used in the passing game, the week-to-week fluctuations are too much for us. So if you look at what Colum has done on the field since the Rams bye, his profile doesn’t give us the confidence to start him.
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Week 9: 29% (Quick Rate), 0% (Target Share)
However, not every carry has the same value. That’s why anyone like Bijan Robinson this year or Jahmyr Gibbs last season gets nervous every time the Falcons or Lions get into scoring position. They know what’s coming next. The same thing happened in Los Angeles. Through five games entering Week 14, Corum has accounted for 56 percent of its goal-line scoring possessions. Matched by his 8.6 punts per game, the Rams’ RB2 received the most money touches. Combine that opportunity with an offense that has had the most red zone plays in the last six games and you have a RB3. Plus, the Corum’s only appeal isn’t in short-gauge situations.
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Sprint success rate (Weeks 9-13): 57.9% (Williams), 52.1% (Kunlun)
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Adjustment. Yards per contact attempt: 3.54, 3.23
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Forced steal rate: 22.4%, 33.3%
I used the explosive run in the opening cut, but avoided referencing Corum’s big play rate here as that wasn’t the main idea. OC Mike LaFleur noted that they’re seeing an updated version of Williams because of the rotation. With Corum matching Williams on a bottom-up basis in efficiency, Matthew Stafford can proceed as planned.
bottom line: I’m willing to give Kunlun some credit throughout the playoffs. The matchups may be tougher (Lions, Seahawks, Falcons), but Corum’s specific situation makes him a viable option in Week 15 and beyond.
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The duo we never knew we didn’t want
I have something I must admit. I think you are too. But first, a look at Kenneth Walker III’s run starting Sunday.
Just like Walker’s movie last season. Prior to the injury, the Seahawks’ RB1 ranked first among his peers in forced tackle turnover rate (38.6%). That jumped to 45.8 percent when he made contact at or behind the line of scrimmage on 83 of his 153 rush snaps. His vision and ability to create something out of nothing are traits we’ll keep going into the offseason. Combined with data that emphasizes that Walker will thrive in new OC Klint Kubiak’s outside zone scheme, we’ve anchored ourselves on the idea of ”Walker-ssance.” But when new information came in, we stood our ground.
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Sprint success rate (when both parties are activated): 42.9% (Walker), 44.7% (Charbonnet)
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Adjustment. Yards per contact attempt: 3.97, 3.29
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Forced steal rate: 26.0%, 25.8%
In essence, confirmation bias keeps us from jumping ship. Of course, I’ve had the entire season to show how Zach Charbonnet rivals Walker’s on-field efficiency. But it was obvious within the first month. Charbonnet finished at 44 percent despite missing Week 3 with a foot injury. Before you point out that Walker’s own illness may have hindered him earlier in the year, let’s take a look at how things have gone since that bye.
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(About the concept of outer zones) Sprint success rate: 45.0% (Charbonnet), 25.8% (Walker)
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Adjustment. Yards per contact attempt: 5.5, 4.4
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Forced steal rate: 50.0%, 32.3%
Unfortunately, this is Blake Corum’s perspective, but in reverse. Seattle’s strength is its passing ability. The charge attack complements it. But he hesitated even on designs that would have favored Walker, lending credibility to the committee’s ideas. His talent for bouncing around would-be tacklers can be a curse at times, limiting his output. The result is what we saw in Week 14.
Bottom line: Frankly, I don’t trust either RB against the Colts. Both scenarios can happen. Walker can complete a long run like he did against the Vikings, and Charbonnet scores inside the 10-yard line. Or, Charbonette creates dynamite and Walker wins some targets. Sam Darnold struggled before starting to connect with Jaxson Smith-Njiba, and that uncertainty might be worth avoiding the Seahawks’ ground attack if you have better options.
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Trevor Lawrence has a new friend
Based on the number of social media posts I’ve seen referencing them, I think Brian Thomas Jr. has re-established himself as the Jaguars’ leading receiver.
To be fair, hats off to Thomas. The last time he had more than 75 receiving yards was in early October. He hasn’t recorded an explosive catch in a month (and, of course, he’s missed multiple games). However, 3 catches with 25.8 aDOT for air yards isn’t exactly the mark of a top WR. No player with similar target depth has managed more than three attempts this season. So, if I had to have confidence in Jacksonville’s receivers, I’d be counting on the guy who caught their first pass for a touchdown.
Of course, picking who falls into the end zone seems like the most basic analysis. And, I promise you, I wish I could tell you who will score every week. Well, unless we’re together. Anyway, I don’t have that power. However, I’m sure we can find out who has the best chance of scoring six points for the Jaguars.
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Jakobi Meyers (since Week 10): 36% (end zone target rate)
Now, as the metrics indicate, we’ll just see who Trevor Lawrence happens to find running through the paint the most. Meyers sits at the top of this list, which gives him a ceiling. The frequency with which Lawrence sought out the former Raider is why he’s in the top-24 discussion.
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Target share: 23.7%, first (from week 10)
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Aviation yard share: 22.8%, first
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Slot target rate: 26.3%, first
We’ve been waiting months for Lawrence Thomas to be connected. It only took Meyers a week. His ability in midfield is a stabilizing factor for the attack. From Week 6 to Week 10 (three games before the trade and Meyers’ first game), Lawrence had a negative EPA rating per dropback and a below-league pass completion rate. Now, with Thomas and Strange back in the lineup, Lawrence’s two statistics have hit season highs, and the newcomer has accumulated 30% of his appearance.
Bottom line: I have every confidence that Meyers can finish the season. His rapport with Lawrence is something we haven’t seen since Travis Hunter started making waves on similar lines. Plus, games against the Jets, Broncos, and Colts (for the second time) aren’t major concerns. So if you have Meyers on your roster, lock him in at WR2 and enjoy the ride.
