We’re finally entering Championship Week of the fantasy football season, so let’s wrap up some strategy tips. Much of this will be a recap and stuff we’ve written and discussed over the past few years. Some of these are specific to December; other tips are more general. As usual, many of these tips are common sense – and common sense is the most important club to have in your bag.
It all comes down to good decisions. This may be what has led you to this point, and the key to giving yourself the best chance in the coming weeks. Keep making those good decisions, friends.
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Here’s what you need to know and consider when pursuing that title.
Audit team motivations
All 32 NFL teams will be in action this week, but with different motivations. You need to spend some time finding out who cares about the outcome and who might care less.
Some of this stuff is easy. The Bears and Packers are competing for the NFC North title — and they care. The Lions, Ravens and Colts are all expected to make the playoffs but are still alive — and they care. The Panthers and Buccaneers need to win as the NFC South is up for grabs. The Seahawks, Rams and 49ers all remain in the NFC West. They are working hard.
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Competition in the three divisions of the AFC is fierce, so all teams are full of fighting spirit. These include the Patriots, Bills, Jaguars, Texans, Broncos and Chargers.
The Eagles are in the playoffs but are likely to lock up the third seed in the NFC. They won’t be retaining their starters, but an early shutout in a blowout game wouldn’t surprise me — looking at their performance against the Raiders two weeks ago.
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The Steelers need a win (or tie) or a Baltimore loss (or tie) to clinch the AFC North. If Baltimore doesn’t beat Green Bay on Saturday, the Steelers won’t need a game against Cleveland on Sunday. Assuming Pittsburgh wins the division, it’s nearly impossible to escape the AFC’s fourth seed.
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Teams eliminated from the playoffs include: Cowboys, Commanders, Giants, Vikings, Falcons, Saints, Cardinals, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, Titans, Chiefs and Raiders. It’s not that these clubs didn’t play well in Week 17, it’s that they didn’t have the cleanest momentum. Consider this before deciding on your lineup.
Think like a DFS player
Remember, your head-to-head matchup and starting lineup are ever-changing entities, both before and during the game. If you find yourself going from clear favorite to clear underdog after a few results, it might make sense to embrace volatility in the back half of the slate.
Optimal decision-making is a dynamic process; like a card counter at a blackjack table, variables are constantly changing. Don’t throw common sense out the window as the game progresses, but at least consider how the situation changes and whether you need to adopt a different strategy as your odds of winning increase or decrease.
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A key tip related to this is – understand the purpose of your flex points. If you’re going to play anyone early in the game, make sure they occupy a static position (RB, WR, etc.) and not a flex position.
Also consider the flow of this year’s Championship Week. We have three games on Christmas Thursday. We have two more games on Saturday. The week then ended at the usual pace, with a series of games on Sunday and a game on Monday. There are several moments this week when you can reassess your projected results and decide if anything needs to change to reflect the new reality.
Consider everything you respect, but make your own decision
You are the CEO, the general manager, the marketing director. You win, you get the spoils. I don’t blame you for seeking information and other opinions – I would do the same – but ultimately, you want to be responsible for your choices. You know your league better than we do.
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There are no shortcuts or golden tickets, although we sometimes want to believe these things. If the answer were easy, this would be a pretty boring game. There is no analyst worthy of your blind devotion, and no one so dense as to deserve automatic fading (which is just as valuable as the omniscient analyst, but neither exists). Consider the sound opinions you would normally seek, but condense everything into your own sound decision-making process.
Don’t play for the friendliest loss
This article is not for everyone, as I know many managers who would like to follow simple rules of thumb when struggling with the paradox of choice. “Always start with your stars” has always struck me as a crutch rather than an answer to any problem – because the definition of a star is so fluid. Is Justin Jefferson still a fantasy star? Now that the Chiefs are down to their No. 3 quarterback, is Travis Kelce unavailable? What about injured stars, or players coming back from multiple games? Do they live up to the outdated “start your star” adage?
Most professional sports coaches still run by the book (although that is starting to change), and they often dilute expected value in the process. It’s understandable that they’re being pushed in this direction – they need to keep their jobs, be accountable to the media and the public, and stay in good graces in the dressing room. Few policymakers can do unorthodox things without taking significant risks.
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But fantasy managers don’t have that invisible hand guiding us. We don’t need to please the owners, or win over the media, or appease the players. We just want the best chance to win.
I’m not going to pick my starting lineup based on brand value, August ADP, or what I thought of the depth chart a month ago. I will try to make all critical decisions with the sole goal of getting the highest score possible. I don’t care which potential losing situation causes the least damage (which is why some people have a hard time benching a big-name player; it’s human nature to try to cushion the blow before it comes).
Never forget, this is a game about numbers, not a game about names.
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Quick click
The article can be an ongoing entity; eventually, we have to hit publish. Some other simple ideas:
— Weather is worth considering, but as a low-end priority; generally speaking, high winds are the only thing to be proactive about.
— It would be nice if you could get an indoor or warm-weather kicker, although most of the time I just want a kicker that’s associated with a team that’s expected to win.
— The trick with fantasy football is how you balance the season in the long run. Understand the playoffs for what they are: tournaments. We are all troubled by differences sometimes.
— Take as much time as possible before making a decision. Walking days are meant to gather information.
I’m sure I’m missing some tips that stand out on your clipboard. Follow me on social media and share your thoughts.
