President Donald Trump’s first year back in power has shattered any remaining illusions among European leaders that he could manage or control.
His open hostility toward the EU has strained the transatlantic alliance that has existed since World War II and deepened rifts among European leaders and within the bloc, jeopardizing its ability to respond to Trump’s threats and taunts with the unity and strength he respects.
That leaves Ukraine’s fate until 2026 hanging in the balance, not to mention unresolved existential questions about European security at a time when many fear Russian President Vladimir Putin’s territorial ambitions extend further west beyond Ukraine.
But in many ways, Europe is riding out the rollercoaster ride so far.
“Europeans cannot afford to cut ties and file divorce papers because they remain too dependent, especially on security and the U.S. military commitment to defend Europe,” said Jana Prelin, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
But she went on to say that leaders’ efforts to maintain a strong relationship with the United States based on short-term interests does not mean that the past year has not shown that long-term interests are no longer aligned.
“We need to keep our heads above water,” she said. “In the past, there was a clear dominant understanding of the old transatlantic relationship embodied in Western values, norms and principles, a rules-based international order. Now I think we’re seeing a competing project emerging.”
Entering the new year, the government’s vision is also very clear.
It sees a continent losing its values and identity to liberal ideals that are far more harmful to European security than any letter from the White House. The White House sees Friend’s actions — pushing Europe to spend more on its own defense, limit immigration and end the war in Ukraine — as an effort to correct that.
“President Trump has good relationships with many European leaders, but he has never shied away from telling the hard truths,” said White House spokesperson Anna Kelly. “The devastating impact of unrestricted immigration and the inability of these immigrants to assimilate is a concern not only for President Trump, but also for Europeans themselves, who increasingly view immigration as one of their top concerns. These open border policies have led to widespread violence, surges in crime, and have adversely affected the fiscal sustainability of social safety net programs.”
After a stellar year with VP J.D. Vance Lecture to Europe on freedom of expression in Munich and then Paired with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky With Trump in the Oval Office, Europeans have adapted to his worldview—a shift, As described by Nicuşor Dan from Romaniamoved from “an ethical way of doing things to a very pragmatic and economical way of doing things” — and succeeded in getting the White House back on multiple fronts.
The EU’s trade submission accepted the new 15% tariff to limit short-term economic losses. NATO has pledged to increase defense spending by 5% over the next decade to appease Trump. The June summit solidified –This is largely due to allowing existing non-defense spending to account for 1.5% of the new total.
Rather than abandoning Ukraine, Trump agreed in July to provide additional defense aid for Ukraine’s war with Russia as long as Europe paid for it. Europeans can already afford it Trump meets Putin in August In Alaska, the government announced a 28-point peace plan developed in secret with the Kremlin and revised in collaboration with the United States and Ukraine.
in a Interviewed by POLITICO earlier this monthTrump blasted European leaders as “weak”, claiming they “don’t know what to do” especially on immigration. He questioned whether European leaders should remain allies, saying “it depends” on their policies, and that he would not hesitate to intervene in European elections to support far-right parties that challenge the coalitions and leaders he currently works with.
This coincides with Release of new national security strategy It called for “cultivating resistance” to Eurocentrism, which is committing “civilizational suicide” and expressed contempt for the European Union, which the administration said was “inimical” to U.S. economic interests.
Constanze Stelzenmüller, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe, called the new NSA’s European component a “game changer” for leaders on both sides of the Atlantic, “permanently changing” long-term strategy with the United States
“The shock that European leaders and the public feel when they read the European chapter of the National Security Strategy and see written content that suggests this administration views Europe or the center of European politics as unreliable allies and resorts to such hostile allies should not be underestimated,” she said. “For 2026, we need to prepare for the worst. We have clear vulnerabilities, and those vulnerabilities will be exploited.”
Trump also ended the year by reminding Europe of his brazen desire to wrest control of Greenland from Denmark, which he outlined during his first term and shortly before his second inauguration. Denmark is a reliable NATO ally, with the highest per capita defense spending of any member state. Saturday, he Appoints Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry as Greenland envoyLandry’s work explain Will focus efforts to “make Greenland part of the United States”
“This is shocking for many countries who believe that nothing is safer than a bilateral relationship with the United States,” Stelzenmuller said.
While publicly threatening Denmark, the U.S. government is also estranged from the EU by suggesting countries seek better trade deals by leaving the 27-nation bloc and engaging bilaterally with the White House.
“The fundamental question facing Europeans at the end of the year is whether they believe that tactical victory is enough to win the strategic war that has sustained the transatlantic alliance for eighty years,” said Ivo Dalde, the U.S. ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who declared Pax Americana dead earlier this month, appeared to be open to the possibility, saying last week that it was “very clear” that Trump “cannot connect with the EU” and that “at least individual member states, including Germany above all, can continue this cooperation with the EU.”
Mertz led a failed effort in Brussels last week to get the EU to redirect $200 billion in seized Russian assets into loans to Ukraine, but Belgium, Italy and other countries balked. But he ultimately succeeded with some kind of backup plan because EU approves $90 billion loan to Ukraine Designed to keep its troops on the battlefield for another two years. Three Trump-aligned leaders, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, opted out of the loan but did not prevent it from going through.
While Trump has quietly opposed EU efforts to fund Ukraine’s war, Europeans have largely supported his diplomatic efforts to end the war and push for stronger security guarantees to ensure Ukraine’s long-term survival. Finnish President Alexander Stubb appears on Fox News on Sunday statement Trump’s efforts help push talks ‘closer’ [to a peace deal] more than at any other time in this war,” a comment that seemed aimed at a well-known audience and was only loosely based on what most European leaders actually believed.
