Main points
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Tom Lee said that Ethereum’s bottom pullback was supported by multiple signals.
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The strong upside narrative remains.
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Credibility is honed by past missteps.
Ethereum’s price is once again at the center of bold market predictions, with Fundstrat’s Tom Lee suggesting that the latest downturn could mark the end of crypto winter rather than the beginning of a deeper collapse.
After a tumultuous period in which Ethereum pulled back sharply, Lee believes the market is now at or very close to a cyclical bottom.
His latest outlook draws on technology analogies, on-chain data and long-term performance trends.
But given his previous bottom calls, investors need to weigh whether this is a turning point or another premature sign.
Lee’s current thesis is that Ethereum is either at a bottom or in the final stages of forming a bottom.
He bases this argument on three key factors:
Lee cited analysis from “legendary market timer” Tom DeMark, who saw similarities between Ethereum’s recent price action and the S&P 500’s major decline:
According to DeMark, Ethereum has a 93% correlation with these historical patterns.
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If the 1987 simulation holds true, ETH may bottom out around March 7.
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If what happened in 2011 holds true, ETH is now bottoming out.
Lee interpreted this as strong evidence that the worst of the recession is over.
Lee also uses realized price (the average on-chain purchase price of ETH) to measure market pressure.
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Current realized price: $2,241
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ETH is currently trading at approximately a 22% discount
For context:
This puts the current market almost exactly in line with previous turning points, indicating that investors are deeply underwater – a classic late-stage bear market signal.
Lee reinforced his bullish stance with Ethereum’s long-term track record:
compared to:
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Bitcoin: 11,000% (100x)
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NVIDIA: 6,500% (65x)
Lee also elaborated on Ethereum’s potential upside relative to Bitcoin, arguing that a sharp rise in the world’s largest cryptocurrency could significantly boost Ethereum’s valuation.
“If Bitcoin hits $250,000, Ethereum will be worth between $12,000 and $22,000 and return to 2021 levels,” Lee said.
He added that in a more optimistic scenario – where Ethereum is increasingly viewed as a core payments infrastructure – the price could climb to $62,000.