MIAMI (AP) — Nearly three decades after a Democrat held Miami’s mayor’s office, the party hopes to reverse that futility in this week’s special runoff election, one of the last electoral showdowns before next year’s midterm elections.
Although a local election, the election has become the latest test of American political sentiment nearly a year into President Donald Trump’s second term.
Trump and other big-name Florida Republicans, including Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Rick Scott, spoke out for the conservative candidate, former city manager Emilio Gonzalez, in the nonpartisan race. Nationally prominent Democrats, including former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, expressed support for Rep. Erin Higgins, who served on the county commission before winning a runoff seat last month.
A Democratic loss on Tuesday will give the party extra momentum heading into a critical election year when control of Congress is at stake, especially in a district that has become increasingly friendly to Republicans and where Trump plans to build a presidential library.
Higgins lives in Little Havana, a Cuban enclave that once represented a conservative-leaning district that he proudly wears the label “La Gringa,” the term Spanish speakers use for white Americans. Higgins, a Spanish speaker herself, has kept her campaign focused on local issues like housing costs while tapping into national issues, including the treatment of immigrants under the Trump administration in a city with a large Hispanic and foreign-born population.
“I’m a Democrat serving in a predominantly Republican district, and everything I do is serve the people,” she told The Associated Press.
Democrats will try to break Republican grip on power
Miami is Florida’s second most populous city after Jacksonville, but it is the center of the state’s diverse culture and one of the nation’s most prominent international destinations, giving the mayor a huge platform.
The city of 487,000 is part of Miami-Dade County, which Trump flipped last year and easily defeated Democrat Kamala Harris after losing it to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. Gonzalez’s defeat will be seen in Florida as a setback for Republicans and Trump.
Christian Alvert, Higgins’ campaign manager, said the early return of mail-in ballots is encouraging. As of Thursday, the day before early in-person voting began, registered Democrats had cast about 44% of their votes, while registered Republicans had cast about 30%.
“What you saw was tremendous enthusiasm among Democrats and a turnout to match that enthusiasm,” he said.
If elected, Higgins would become Miami’s first non-Hispanic mayor in nearly 30 years. She said she believes she will have support not only from Democrats but also from independent voters and some Republicans because of the work she has done as an elected official.
Her recommendations to voters include finding city-owned land that can be converted into affordable housing and cutting unnecessary spending. Recently, at a forum hosted by the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce, she was asked whether she would try to transition the more ceremonial role of mayor into a full-time job without taking on other duties, raising ethical concerns for the current mayor, term-limited Francis Suarez.
“I don’t have an outside job right now. I’m a full-time commissioner. I’m going to be a full-time mayor,” Higgins said, as the interviewer pressed her on whether that meant not taking any outside jobs.
Higgins responded in a blunt, serious way: “Well, need I be more clear? No! This is a full-time job.”
Republicans worry Latino support is wavering
While Latino voters nationwide have traditionally leaned Democratic, Republicans in Florida have drawn strong support from Cuban, Venezuelan and Nicaraguan immigrants who resist the socialist tendencies of the governments they fled. Trump capitalized on those sentiments to win Miami-Dade County last year, reversing his 30-point loss to Democrat Hillary Clinton in Miami-Dade County in 2016.
However, some Florida Republicans began to sound the alarm after the November elections, when Democrats won nationally watched gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. Both winning candidates performed well among nonwhite voters, with the Democratic winner in the New Jersey race receiving two-thirds of the Hispanic vote, according to AP voter polls.
The results are largely seen as reflecting concerns about rising prices and the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration policies.
U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, a Republican whose district includes Miami, called the elections elsewhere a “wake-up call.” Florida Sen. Ileana Garcia, who founded a Latino group for Trump in 2016, said of the immigration arrests that “what we are witnessing is inhumane.”
Gonzalez, the former director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services under Republican President George W. Bush, said during a debate hosted by the CBS affiliate in Miami that he supports immigration arrests for criminals. But when the host said most of those arrested did not commit violent crimes, he demurred: “But this is a federal issue,” Gonzalez said. “This is not an issue with the mayor of Miami.”
Higgins spoke of Miami signing on to a federal program that delegates immigration rights to local police, county sheriffs and state agencies, and said she would find legal options to reverse the decision to rebuild trust between residents and law enforcement.
“When we start executing any of the shenanigans that the federal government does by randomly selecting people, we risk eroding that trust,” she said.
Florida Democrats hope for resurgence
Higgins has been endorsed by Florida Democrats, hoping to show the party still has a foothold in the former swing state.
Some Democrats who may be considering a 2028 presidential run have also backed her campaign. Buttigieg encouraged voters in a video to make plans to vote for her, and U.S. Sen. Ruben Gallego of Arizona planned to join her on Sunday to stop voting early.
Many of the local issues addressed in the campaign resonate nationally, including income inequality and one of the most unaffordable housing markets in the country.
Miami voter Gustavo Ascani, 30, said the city has long-standing problems that need to be addressed. He said he hasn’t decided who to vote for yet, but said addressing homelessness and transportation are his top priorities.
“Maybe after being in power there for so long, Republicans have lost sight of certain issues that are important to the people of Miami,” Askani said.
Robin Peguero, a former prosecutor who is running for a chance to challenge Salazar for his congressional seat, said voters’ concerns center on affordability, an issue that has become a bipartisan focus after Democratic wins in New Jersey and Virginia.
These include expectations that health insurance premiums will rise sharply after Affordable Care Act subsidies expire on January 1. The Obama-era health law remains popular in South Florida, and recent polls show most people who would be affected by the increase blame Trump and Republicans.
“Whether it’s the election of local officials or the election of the president, this is a kitchen table issue,” Peguero said. “It’s a rejection of what’s going on in this country.”
