At the current price of $67,000, Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency: BTC) It is currently 46% below its all-time high of $126,000 in October. Bitcoin has been facing steady selling pressure for more than four months.
So it’s perhaps not surprising that prediction market traders believe Bitcoin has little chance of reaching $150,000 this year. But what if they ignore the bull market scenario hiding in plain sight?
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Currently, Polymarket traders believe that Bitcoin has a 10% chance of reaching $150,000 by the end of the year. This is very low. By comparison, they also believe Bitcoin has a 10% chance of reaching $20,000 this year. In other words, they said it’s just as likely that Bitcoin’s value will surge by 120% as it will drop another 70%.
Furthermore, Polymarket traders believe that Bitcoin has little chance of regaining last year’s all-time high of $126,000. Currently, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $120,000 is 22% and the probability of reaching $130,000 is 19%. Therefore, according to market forecasts, Bitcoin has a one-in-five chance of returning to normal.
From my perspective, those odds are really low. Consider that just 12 months ago, there was growing consensus that Bitcoin would double in value from its current price of $100,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025. Even late last year, it was easy to find a Bitcoin price target in the $150,000 to $200,000 range.
Bitcoin’s bull case involves politics. Especially the upcoming US midterm elections in November. The idea here is that Republicans, fearful of losing seats in the House and Senate, will do whatever they can to stimulate financial markets and calm concerns about the U.S. economy.
This includes taking extraordinary steps to boost Bitcoin’s price, which is almost unanimously seen as key to reviving the fortunes of the crypto industry. The White House campaigned on a pro-crypto platform and won’t give up on Bitcoin now. If Bitcoin continues to slide, the entire policy framework that made the United States a “Bitcoin superpower” will look increasingly disconnected from reality.
I’m not the only one who thinks this way. Cathie Wood, a well-known investor at Ark Invest, also believes that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will become a highly charged political issue as the midterm elections approach. She believes the U.S. government will start actively purchasing Bitcoin as a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which could be huge.
