Due to the Presidents’ Day holiday, America’s Crypto Diaries will not be published on Monday, February 16th, we will be back on February 17th.
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times Eastern unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin It’s expected to be a fourth straight week of declines, the longest losing streak since mid-November. The largest cryptocurrency has fallen 1.7% in the past 24 hours and is down 4.8% since Monday morning.
Bitwise research analyst Danny Nelson said the broader CoinDesk 20 index (CD20) fell 2% and the market was mainly driven by fear. In fact, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has now been in the “extreme fear” zone for nearly two weeks.
“The main driver of the market right now is fear. Fear that prices are going to go lower,” Nelson told CoinDesk. “In a market like this, investors don’t notice good news. If they see an exit ramp, they take it.”
To illustrate his point, Nelson pointed to the reaction to Uniswap BlackRock (BLK), the world’s largest asset manager, said shares of its $2.2 billion tokenized U.S. Treasury fund BUIDL can be traded on decentralized exchanges, sending shares up 25%. The coin has now given back the gains it made following the announcement.
“Sellers who are bearish on the short-term direction of the market overwhelm the bulls who are betting that institutional adoption will drive value in the long term,” he said.
Earlier this week, stronger U.S. nonfarm payrolls data and a falling unemployment rate prompted traders to reconsider expectations for a rate cut this year. Further guidance is likely to come later today in the form of inflation data from the world’s largest economy.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year inflation rate in January is expected to be 2.5%.
Concerns about a partial U.S. government shutdown have added to the uncertainty. On the Kalshi prediction market, the chance of this happening tomorrow is about 90%. If this scenario materializes, expect greater volatility in thin trading. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Market
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- cryptocurrency
- Macro
- February 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. core inflation rate in January year-on-year (previously 2.6%); monthly estimate 0.3% (previously 0.2%)
- February 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. inflation rate in January year-on-year (previously 2.7%); monthly estimate 0.3% (previously 0.3%)
- income (Estimate based on FactSet data)
- February 13: Trump Media Technology Group (DJT), post-IPO
- February 13: HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market, -$0.07
Token event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlock
- February 15: Connex Unlocks 1.56% of its circulating supply, worth $15 million.
- Token issuance
Meeting
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
market trend
- BTC is up 1.75% at $66,933.65 as of 4pm ET on Thursday (24 hours: -0.83%)
- ETH up 2.05% to $1,961.15 (24 hours: -0.97%)
- CoinDesk 20 up 1.48% to 1,913.46 (24 hours: -1.96%)
- The comprehensive pledge rate of Ethereum CESR dropped by 15 basis points to 2.85%
- The BTC financing interest rate on Binance is 0.0019% (annualized 2.0947%)
- DXY rose 0.13% to 97.05
- Gold futures rose 1.41% to $4,993.10
- Silver futures rose 3.65% to $78.30
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.21% at 56,941.97 points
- The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.72% to 26,567.12 points
- The FTSE 100 rose 0.12% to 10,414.44
- The Stoxx Europe 50 index fell 0.16% to 6,001.38
- The Dow closed down 1.34% on Thursday at 49,451.98 points
- The S&P 500 closed down 1.57% at 6,832.76 points
- The Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 2.03% at 22,597.15 points
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 2.37% at 32,465.30
- The S&P 40 Latin America Index closed down 1.71% at 3,741.30 points
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rate fell 7 basis points to 4.10%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures fell 0.27% to 6,832.50
- E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.29% to 24,696.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.33% to 49,358.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- Bitcoin dominance: 59.01% (+0.41%)
- Ethereum-Bitcoin ratio: 0.02923 (-0.55%)
- Hash rate (seven-day moving average): 1,027 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $33.55
- Total fee: 2.55 BTC / $170,716
- CME Futures Open Interest: 116,875 Bitcoin
- BTC in gold: 13.5 ounces.
- Bitcoin and gold market capitalization: 4.48%
technical analysis
- Bitcoin remains under pressure below the 200-week exponential moving average of $68,324.
- Historically, if the weekly close confirms below this level, it signals a further 20%-25% decline.
- Price will rise towards the $51,000 to $54,000 range before a bottom is formed
crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed at $141.09 (-7.90%) Thursday pre-market, up 5.87% to $149.37
- Circle Internet (CRCL): Closed at $56.63 (-2.13%), +1.71% at $57.60
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $20.15 (-1.23%)
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $31.71 (-0.53%), +0.28% at $31.80
- MARA Holdings (MARA): Closed at $7.25 (-4.10%), +1.10% at $7.33
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $14.20 (-4.05%), +0.85% at $14.32
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $17.48 (-3.37%), +0.11% at $17.50
- CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $9.31 (-3.22%), +1.18% at $9.42
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miner ETF (WGMI): Closed at $40.10 (-3.70%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): Closed at $10.19 (+1.09%)
Cryptocurrency Treasury Corporation
- Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $123.00 (-2.44%), +1.54% at $124.89
- Strive (ASST): Closed at $7.70 (-4.82%), +0.52% at $7.74
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): Closed at $6.54 (-1.21%), +1.07% at $6.61
- Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $0.74 (-8.82%)
- Lite Strategies (LITS): Closed at $1.03 (-3.74%)
ETF flows
Spot BTC ETF
- Net daily traffic: -$410.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.3 billion
- Total BTC holdings are approximately 1.27 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Net daily traffic: -$113.1 million
- Cumulative net flow: $11.67 billion
- The total amount of ETH held is about 5.8 million
Source: Farside Investors
