These days, the Dodgers aren’t just playing season-by-season. Their goal is history. They’ve won the past two World Championships and are in position to win a third after acquiring closer Edwin Diaz and outfielder Kyle Tucker.
Los Angeles’ current October dogpile ranking is +225; the Yankees (+1100) and Mariners (+1200) are currently distant second and third options. There are actually 11 teams squeezed between +1100 and +2500; after the Dodgers, you can make a lot of pitches for championship clubs. But any reasonable person would admit that the Dodgers are the clear favorite.
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When Tucker was added to a roster that already featured three past MVP winners (Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman), it immediately sparked a discussion about whether the Dodgers have the best offense in fantasy baseball history, or the best team in fantasy baseball history. The offensive bottom line of this team is very high. The Dodgers finished in the top five in runs scored (2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 1st, 5th, 5th) for eight consecutive seasons. They just added Tucker, the top offensive player on the free agent market. Ohtani is still a unicorn.
I get excited about “greatest of all time” type discussions, but I usually throw cold water on these types of things. On the road to history, many things can go wrong.
Let’s try to unpack some of this. How could this Hollywood team go off script?
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This is an older team
The addition of Tucker makes sense for a team that doesn’t need an outfielder; it needs one young outfielder. Take a look at the season ages of this lineup:
Betts’ OPS+ last year was 104; 100 is league average. Hernandez finished at 103. Freeman’s performance over the past two years has been below his career standards; despite playing 147 games, he ranks only 46th in 5×5 value. Muncy may fall into a platoon; he’ll hit hard, but it’ll cost him some at-bats.
It is generally believed that the peak value of offensive players is between 26-29. That doesn’t mean players in their 30s can’t become stars, and at this point, it would be foolish to doubt Ohtani on anything. But sometimes we have to let the actuarial vibe creep into our fantasy discussions.
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This is not an aggressive running team
Given the depth of Los Angeles’ roster, you can understand why head coach Dave Roberts wouldn’t want to generate runs. Only two Los Angeles regulars had double-digit stolen bases last year – Ohtani stole 20 bags (the 59 bags the year before always felt like a one-time thing) and Page stole 14 bases. Bates (eight steals) and Freeman (six steals) mostly closed out that part of their game. Edelman was once an aggressive runner in St. Louis. He attempted just four tackles last year. Traffic jams remain in Southern California.
The Dodgers are acting like they’re already in the playoffs
The Dodgers seemed to have learned their lesson from 2021-2023, when they posted a ridiculous 317 wins in the regular season but never reached the World Series. They have won 98 and 93 games the past two years and won the championship respectively. That’s not to say they didn’t try during the regular season, but they just viewed it as a prelude to big games in October. They’ve essentially made the playoffs — they’ve qualified for 13 straight years, and 40 percent of MLB clubs now make the tournament — so you can play it safe with six months of seasonal grueling periods.
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This strategy will impact the fantasy value their starting pitchers accrue. Whenever a Los Angeles pitcher gets a hiccup in his shoulder, elbow or forearm, he’s probably taking a break. Regardless, the Dodgers have enough personnel to run a six-man rotation.
Last year, Yoshinobu Yamamoto logged 173.2 innings; no other staff member reached 113 innings. In 2024, only two LAD pitchers have logged 90 innings, and neither is eligible for the ERA title. In 2023, the team’s cap is 131.2 innings.
Yamamoto was the hero of last year’s World Series, and maybe he has what it takes to break that strategy. But given the age and injury history of Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and even Ohtani, I would be very careful about projecting them to the mound. Emmet Sheehan and Roki Sasaki (expected to start again) also have steel ceilings.
So I try to add a little break to the out-of-control expectations. But what if the Dodgers hit the ceiling of their range in 2026? What historical teams are they chasing?
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The greatest fantasy baseball teams in MLB history
The best OPS+ team ever was the 1927 Yankees (127), which is the quintessential answer for the best offense ever. Behind them are some teams you’ve probably seen; the 2023 Braves, the 2017 Astros (with a little help from a trash can), the 1976 Reds, and the 2024 Dodgers. Other teams in the top 10 include the 2019 Astros, 2019 Yankees and 2019 Twins. The Mariners, who won 116 games in 2001, were ranked 11th.
In today’s MLB game, no one is likely to score 1,000 runs; the mark has only been done three times. The 1932 and 1936 Yankees did it, as did the 1999 Indians (who I consider to be the best offense of the fantasy era). Over the past 25 years, we’ve seen 17 teams hit 900; that’s a good goal for the Dodgers. In 2023, Los Angeles scored 906 points.
The home run record is 307; the 2023 Braves and 2019 Twins hold this position. Los Angeles’ best home run season came in 2019, when they hit 279 homers. As you may remember, the ball games were very lively that year. The Dodgers hit 249 home runs in 2023 and 244 last year; they will likely be around that number in the new season.
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Maybe you prefer a modern metric view of all this. If we looked at offenses across all fantasy eras by collective offensive WAR (using Baseball Reference), the 2007 Yankees would be at the top of the list (40.0). They are followed by the 2001 Mariners, 2023 Braves, 2017 Astros and 2024 Dodgers. Last year’s Dodgers offense had a team-wide rating of 29.1, which ranked 62nd in this survey.
Of course, this is a great offense. But it’s still far from the top.
Hey, the future is unwritten. Maybe Tucker will finally be lucky enough to go his own way due to injuries and have a career season. You can never say “never” to anything involving Ohtani. Judging from their resumes, Bates and Freeman have already been inducted into the Hall of Fame. Maybe they have another prime season left. Smith can easily beat every other fantasy catcher. Hernandez is a running star. The pitchers may not start 25 games, but there are stars up and down the rotation. Diaz is also a lights out finisher.
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It should be the climax of a season. It’s a shame that Vin Scully wasn’t there to add his words and poetry.
