Miami will face Indiana in the College Football Playoff Championship Game on Monday night, and BetMGM Sportsbook lists Indiana as an 8.5-point favorite heading into the weekend.
Could it be a blowout?
The top-seeded Hoosiers (15-0) defeated Alabama (38-3) and Oregon State (56-22) in the CFP for the program’s first championship. The winning margin is 34.5 points.
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The 10th-seeded Hurricanes (13-2) defeated Texas A&M (10-3), Ohio State (24-14) and Mississippi State (31-27) to reach the title game, where they will be seeking their sixth national title since the poll era began in 1936. That’s a 7-point win, but the point is “the Hurricanes are used to tighter games of late, and maybe that will work in their favor” okay.
How Miami Wins
Carson Baker has to keep doing what he’s doing. His passing numbers over the past three games don’t jump off the page, but he’s 18-for-26 on third down, completing 15 passes, and he led the team with 15 75-yard touchdowns in a semifinal win over Mississippi State, according to Sportradar.
The Canes need Mark Fletcher Jr. to chip away at an Indiana defense that has given up just 2.7 yards per carry in two postseason games and has allowed fewer than 100 yards rushing in 13 of 15 games. Fletcher has been in top form lately, averaging 6.8 yards per carry and over 130 yards per game in the CFP.
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Miami can’t win without pressure on Fernando Mendoza. The Canes lead the nation in sacks, tallying a combined 12 sacks against Texas A&M and Ohio State before losing just once against Trinidad Chambliss in the semifinals. Mendoza can extend games, but he’s not the disruptor that Chambliss is.
The Canes also have to play a clean game. They committed 10 penalties against Mississippi State, including three steals, roughing the passer, targeting, a personal foul and pass interference.
How Indiana can win
Of course, it starts with Mendoza. The Heisman Trophy winner threw for eight touchdowns and no interceptions against Alabama and Oregon State, but now he faces one of the most ferocious pass rushes in the country. His sack rate of 6% was in line with the bowl subdivision average, but he had a tendency to pack sacks in certain games. This can’t be one of those games.
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Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black are excellent 1-2 punchers at running back and could take some of the pressure off Mendoza if given enough room to roam. Top receivers Omar Cooper Jr., Elijah Sarratt and Charlie Becker will line up against a Miami secondary that will be shorthanded in the first half thanks to Xavier Lucas’ field goal attempt against Mississippi State.
The defense must contain Fletcher, blitz creatively against one of the best offensive lines in the country, and make sure to contain flashy freshman Malachi Toney when he gets the ball in the open field.
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Both teams were on storybook runs. Just a few months ago, Indiana still had the worst loss total in Bowl Subdivision history. Miami, the arrogant bully that fell during the recession, can return to the top on its home court.
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This story has a crimson-and-cream ending: Indiana wins 31-21.
AP Prediction Scorecard
CFP semifinals – single game – 1-1; vs. spread – 1-1.
Season: Line — 196-65 (75.1%); Opposition spread — 126-134-1 (48.3%).
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