forward NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) Results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 were released last week, and I think the only way the stock will rise after the report is if management provides a good outlook. But I was wrong. Nvidia delivered a great report and a great outlook, but the stock fell after the earnings report.
In previous articles, I did note that with the market’s high expectations, Nvidia would have a hard time meeting its standards of satisfaction in any case. Nearly insurmountable worries about the future are driving negative sentiment among investors, and the company can do little to calm them.
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It creates a strange dynamic for investors. Nvidia stock looks cheap, trading at just 17 times one-year forward earnings. For a company as fast-growing as Nvidia, the price looks like a bargain. But the market seems uninterested in pushing the stock higher.
Can Nvidia stock price rebound? Can you double your money by 2030?
By all accounts, Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings were excellent. Revenue rose 73% year over year in the period ended Jan. 25, with earnings per share of $1.62, up from $0.89 last year and beating Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $1.54. Management expects revenue to grow 77% year over year in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, maintaining this momentum.
More importantly, it sees a clear path forward. Demand for its products remains strong, and it is launching new, more robust offerings to generate higher engagement and sales.
During the fourth fiscal quarter earnings call, Nvidia Chief Financial Officer Collette Kress said that Nvidia’s data center business is now 13 times larger than when ChatGPT was first launched about three years ago. Although the supply of data center chips is limited, the company believes it has the ability to meet demand through 2027.
Under typical circumstances, a doubling of a business’s revenue should result in a doubling of its stock price, but there’s a lot to be aware of. Nvidia 20’s price-to-sales ratio is actually quite expensive. Holding this ratio constant and assuming it achieves a 50% CAGR in sales over the next four years, Nvidia’s revenue and stock price would exceed four times. That would bring its market capitalization to about $22 trillion. Even if its price-to-sales ratio fell to 10, its market cap would be $10 trillion, more than double today’s market cap.
