Bitcoin’s decline over the past three months has once again prompted familiar comments about an impending cryptocurrency winter. Prices have fallen about 18% during that time, with some commentators pointing to the weakness in cryptocurrency stocks as a sign that the broader market is collapsing.
One of the biggest gainers was American Bitcoin Corp., which plunged about 40% on Tuesday amid unusually high trading volumes. The decline briefly spread for Hut 8, which owns a majority stake in the company. Other Trump-related digital assets also fell sharply, fueling a broader narrative that the industry is heading into another prolonged downturn.
However, market structure data does not support this view.
Bitcoin has attracted more than $732 billion in net new capital since the 2022 cycle low, according to a new report from Glassnode and Fasanara Digital.
The report noted that this single cycle attracted more inflows than all previous Bitcoin cycles combined and pushed the realized cap to approximately $1.1T, while spot prices rose from $16,000 at the peak to approximately $126,000. The realized cap is a measure of real invested capital and is often one of the first indicators to contract during the true winter months. But that didn’t happen.
Volatility tells a similar story.
The report shows that BTC’s one-year actual volatility has dropped from 84% to about 43%. The decline is related to deepening liquidity, expanded ETF participation, and an increase in cash margin derivatives.
Winter begins when volatility rises and liquidity evaporates, not when volatility is reduced by nearly half. Historically, this cycle has been characterized by the increasing popularity of bullish coverage strategies in BTC and IBIT options. These strategies suppressed volatility this cycle, invalidating the previous spot-volatility relationship.
ETF activity also contradicts the idea of a cycle top, the report argued. The report shows that spot ETFs hold approximately 1.36 million BTC, accounting for approximately 6.9% of the circulating supply, and have contributed approximately 5.2% of net inflows since their launch. ETF flows tend to turn negative and stay negative through the true winter months, especially when long-term holders reduce exposure at the same time. Neither situation exists today.
Miners across the industry are also behaving differently from winter patterns. The CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI) is up more than 35% in the three months since BTC fell. In previous winters, miners were the first to go out of business as hash prices deteriorated. The current divergence suggests that miner weakness is not broad-based and that company-specific issues, such as the U.S. Bitcoin sell-off, are not representative of the industry.
Glassnode writes that the pullback itself is consistent with historical mid-cycle behavior rather than a complete reversal.
Bitcoin saw similar declines during periods of leverage reduction or macro tightening in 2017, 2020, and 2023 before continuing higher. The October 2025 deleveraging events cited in the Glassnode and Fasanara reports fit this pattern. Open interest fell sharply within hours, while spot liquidity absorbed billions in forced selling. Such events tend to reset positioning rather than end the cycle.
Bitcoin remains closer to yearly highs near $124,000 than yearly lows around $76,000. Each past winter, the market was drawn to the bottom of the range and stayed there as realized losses accumulated and long-term holders changed their behavior. The current setup does not resemble that environment.
Short-term moves in individual stocks may make headlines, but the structural indicators that define market cycles tell a different story.
Glassnote noted that record realized caps, declining volatility, and sustained ETF demand point to consolidation following the historic inflow cycle.
All in all, current market dynamics are not what you would see at the beginning of crypto winter.