By Omkar Godbole (All times Eastern unless otherwise noted)
They say Bitcoin has a dual appeal: first, as a gold-like digital token with a supply capped at 21 million, and second, as a decentralized technology that allows anyone to move money transparently without intermediaries.
So far, it cannot function as a store of value and payment infrastructure at the same time. Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold, silver, and other precious metals is well-documented.
Equally disappointing is the slowdown in on-chain activity to mid-2025 levels. For example, the 30-day average number of confirmed payments processed daily on the Bitcoin blockchain has dropped to 748,368, the lowest level since mid-July, according to data source Blockchain.com. The number peaked at more than 884,000 in September. Payment means the recipient receives funds through an on-chain transaction.
Monthly averages for the number of confirmed transactions show a similar decline in network usage. The mempool, the “memory pool” where unconfirmed transactions await verification by miners, has also been depleted. There are only a few thousand unconfirmed transactions per day, a trend that has continued since late 2025.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giotus Exchange India, said in an email: “On-chain signals suggest that the market is consolidating, not accumulating. Network activity has softened. The decline in institutional and retail confidence can be seen in fewer active addresses and lower trading volumes.”
The price of the token is pegged to active user adoption of its parent network, and the recent decline in activity at least partly explains Bitcoin’s lackluster price performance in recent months.
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has fallen back to $87,500 after hitting highs above $90,000 ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. As expected, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged. The accompanying policy statement and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference suggested that policymakers may be more cautious about cutting interest rates in the coming months.
Sectors that were strong performers at the start of the week are now mired in deep losses as Bitcoin moves lower. For example, the CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) is down more than 9% in the past 24 hours. Metaverse Select (MTVS) and the Culture and Entertainment Index both fell more than 5%.
Meanwhile, gold tokens PAXG and XAUT are trading higher, benefiting from continued gains in spot gold prices. Worldcoin’s WLD rose 5%.
In traditional markets, oil prices rose to four-month highs on both sides of the Atlantic, threatening to inject inflation into the global economy. A new energy-led inflationary impulse could make it more difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates next time. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Market
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- cryptocurrency
- Macro
- January 29, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. trade balance in November (previous value $331.4B) \
- January 29, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 (previous value: 200,000)
- income (Estimate based on FactSet data)
Token event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlock
- Token issuance
Meeting
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
market trend
- BTC is down 1.67% since 4pm ET on Wednesday to $87,798.68 (24 hours: -2.39%)
- ETH fell 2.5% to $2,941.84 (24 hours: -3.59%)
- CoinDesk 20 down 2.13% to 2,679.82 (24 hours: -2.9%)
- The comprehensive pledge rate of Ethereum CESR increased by 1 basis point to 2.81%
- The BTC financing interest rate on Binance is 0.0073% (annualized 7.9628%)
- DXY remains unchanged at 96.44
- Gold futures rose 3.1% to $5,505.70
- Silver futures rose 2.46% to $116.32
- The Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 53,375.60 points
- The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.51% to 27,968.09 points
- The FTSE rose 0.44% to 10,198.87
- Europe’s Stoxx 50 rose 0.39% to 5,956.17
- The Dow closed unchanged on Wednesday at 49,015.60 points
- The S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,978.03 points
- The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 0.17% at 23,857.45 points
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.24% at 33,176.07 points
- The S&P 40 Latin America Index closed up 1.17% at 3,751.00
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rate rose 0.4 basis points to 4.255%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures were unchanged at 7,011.50
- E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1% to 26,181.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures unchanged at 49,137.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- Bitcoin dominance: 59.65% (0.1%)
- Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.03335 (-1.07%)
- Computing power (seven-day moving average): 872 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $39.24
- Total fee: 2.87 BTC / $256,633
- CME Futures Open Interest: 113,020 BTC
- BTC in gold: 15.9 ounces.
- Bitcoin and gold market capitalization: 5.88%
technical analysis
- This chart shows Bitcoin’s daily price fluctuations since November.
- Prices have turned lower after encountering resistance at a bullish trendline (technical analysis term for a stable uphill path) resistance.
- This turns the focus first to support at $86,000 and, if broken, then to support at $84,445.
crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Wednesday at $209.43 (-0.66%), closing at $207.54 pre-market -0.9%
- Circle Internet (CRCL): Closed at $72.84 (+4.12%), -0.91% at $72.18
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $31.90 (-3.86%), -0.85% at $31.63
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $34.33 (-1.35%), -0.17% at $34.27
- MARA Holdings (MARA): -1.43% closed at $10.37, -1.16% closed at $10.25
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $17.55 (+0.00%), -0.4% at $17.48
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $19.49 (-2.26%), +0.15% at $19.52
- CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $13.45 (+1.36%), -1.49% at $13.25
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miner ETF (WGMI): Closed at $51.37 (+0.92%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): Closed at $14.33 (-7.43%)
Cryptocurrency Treasury Corporation
- Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $158.45 (-1.94%), -0.71% at $157.33
- Strive (ASST): Closed at $0.80 (-2.20%), -0.51% at $0.80
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): Closed at $9.97 (-0.2%)
- Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $1.96 (-1.01%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): Closed at $1.31 (-0.76%), +0.76% Closed at $1.32
ETF flows
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily Net Traffic: -$19.6M
- Cumulative net flow: $56.32 billion
- Total BTC holdings are approximately 1.29 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily net traffic: $28.1 million
- Cumulative net flow: $12.41 billion
- The total amount of ETH held is about 6.04 million
Source: Farside Investors
