Wall Street investment bank Citigroup lowers Bitcoin 12-month price target and Ethereum (ETH), citing slowing U.S. legislative momentum, weak network activity and lower expectations for ETF inflows.
Citi currently expects Bitcoin prices to reach $112,000 and Ethereum prices to reach $3,175 next year, well below previous forecasts of $143,000 and $4,304.
The revised target still shows significant upside potential. As of the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $74,000. Ethereum price is $2,330.
The bank said ETF demand has picked up slightly in the near term despite geopolitical uncertainty, but despite lowering 12-month demand assumptions, capital inflows remain the main upside driver.
“We lower our assumptions to $10 billion in ETF demand $2.5 billion (ETH) remains the most important positive,” analyst Alex Saunders said in a note on Monday.
Cryptocurrency markets have struggled to regain momentum after Bitcoin hit an all-time high in October, with prices lower amid weak risk appetite and fading post-halving enthusiasm. Bitcoin has traded below key technical levels, while Ethereum has lagged further behind on weak on-chain activity. Despite weak price action, ETF inflows have remained resilient, helping to stabilize markets, although broader macro uncertainty and geopolitical tensions continue to limit upside.
Sanders said the outlook depends largely on U.S. regulation. The analyst said that the window for passing digital asset legislation this year is narrowing, with the market’s implied probability falling to around 60%. While broader global policy remains supportive, he believes that overarching legislation in the United States will be a more powerful catalyst for institutional flows than incremental rulemaking.
The Clarity Act, a sweeping U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, has passed the House of Representatives but remains stalled in the Senate as lawmakers negotiate competing proposals, making its path forward uncertain.
The legislation is considered crucial because it would resolve a long-running turf war between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission by setting clear rules on how digital assets are classified and which agencies regulate them. (CFTC) creates legal ambiguity for investors and companies.
By defining token categories and setting a framework for exchange registration, the bill aims to reduce regulatory risks and provide the certainty many institutional investors need before allocating more capital to the cryptocurrency market.
The analyst also noted that momentum in the cryptocurrency market is waning since Bitcoin peaked in October, citing futures liquidation, position fatigue, and prices trading below key technical levels. Bitcoin is likely to continue trading range-bound, with around $70,000 seen as a psychologically important level related to pre-election pricing.
In the bank’s framework, a bull case scenario depends on end-investor acceptance, particularly through ETFs, with Bitcoin targeting $165,000 and Ethereum at $4,488. The bear market scenario reflects a recessionary macro environment, with a price target of $58,000 for BTC and $1,198 for ETH.
The report states that Ethereum’s outlook is more uncertain given its sensitivity to on-chain activity, which has been weak recently. Still, there are potential benefits from the growth of stablecoins, tokenization trends, and possible regulatory attention on DeFi, which could increase usage and demand.
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