Bitcoin USD/USD remains hovering near $75,000 as it hits a supply wall, while institutional demand remains steady and traders weigh progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks amid a two-week ceasefire.
The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index gained about 1.9% in the past 24 hours, while Bitcoin gained 1% as risk sentiment improved amid reports of an extension to the ceasefire.
The gains coincided with a weaker U.S. dollar, which fell to nearly six-week lows, and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, conditions that tend to support cryptocurrency prices by making holding cash less attractive. Gold also rose, suggesting the market is balancing risk appetite with hedging needs.
Still, the setting remains tense. U.S. blockades of Iranian ports and Iranian threats to disrupt shipping routes in the Persian Gulf and nearby waterways continue to cloud the global economic outlook.
Energy supply shocks are already starting to affect inflation expectations, a factor that could alter central bank policy and spill over into cryptocurrency markets.
On-chain data also shows that Bitcoin supply tends to emerge when the price reaches key cost base levels for short-term holders. The price is around $76,800, a level that could act as resistance as investors cash out at breakeven.
Derivatives positioning
- Cryptocurrency futures open interest (OI) rose 2.5% in the past 24 hours, despite a 16% drop in trading volume and a 48% drop in liquidations to $220 million.
- The divergence suggests traders are adding to or holding positions despite a slowdown in trading activity, suggesting they are increasing exposure without firm conviction. The sharp drop in liquidations indicates reduced volatility and fewer forced exits.
- Among the largest coins, XRP and DOGE stand out with OI growth of at least 3%, demonstrating a bullish combination of positive perpetual funding rates and OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD).
- DOGE has the most positive 24-hour CVD, indicating that buyers are more aggressive in raising offers and pushing deals forward.
- On decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, the commodity-linked perpetual contract business continues to remain robust and currently accounts for 30% of the platform’s total notional open interest.
- The 30-day implied volatility indices BVIV and EVIV for Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to hover below their 200-day moving averages, indicating calm in the market.
- In the Bitcoin options market, one-week implied volatility is now trading cheaper relative to realized or realized volatility. In other words, short-term options are cheap right now. This setup typically allows traders to place bullish volatility bets via a straddle/straddle strategy, which involves purchasing both call and put options.
- Deribit-listed Bitcoin and Ethereum options continue to exhibit a bearish bias. Continued demand for downside hedges suggests the sustainability of the recent rally remains in question.
token talk
- CoW Swap, a decentralized exchange aggregator associated with CoW Protocol, suffered a domain name system (DNS) hijacking attack on Tuesday that redirected users to malicious websites and drained funds from connected wallets.
- The leak did not touch the protocol’s smart contracts or backend systems. Instead, the attackers used social engineering to gain control of the project’s domain registrar, allowing them to reroute traffic from cow.fi to a cloned interface designed to capture wallet approvals.
- The damage appears to be limited to the affected users, rather than the protocol itself. On-chain data shows that at least $1 million was drained, with one wallet losing 219 ETH.
- The COW token fell about 2.6% on the day, with trading volume surging as the news spread. Over the next few trading days, the price continued to move lower and is currently down 11%.
- The CoW DAO took back control of the ow.fi domain half a day ago, but sentiment towards the agreement does not appear to have improved. The coin has since fallen another 6%.
