According to data from Checkonchain, 50 days have passed in 2026, and Bitcoin has had its worst start to the fiscal year on record. The asset has fallen 23% so far this year, falling 10% in January and another 15% in February.
According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin has never seen consecutive declines in January and February before. While years such as 2015, 2016 and 2018 saw double-digit declines in January, they were followed by positive gains in February. If losses persist, Bitcoin is also expected to post its weakest consecutive monthly performance since 2022.
Checkonchain data shows that in a typical down year, the 50-day average index reading is 0.84, a benchmark often used by traders to gauge cyclical declines. Bitcoin is currently trading at 0.77, highlighting the scale of the retracement.
This weakness follows a 17% drop in 2025 following the election. Historically, post-election years have tended to perform better than election years, and overall performance has also been better than up years, making recent underperformance even more pronounced.
