Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence who previously said Bitcoin could fall to $10,000, has reiterated his view that Bitcoin could still fall below that level, a prospect that some market analysts say would require an extreme macroeconomic shock.
McGlone said in an interview with ElliotTrades that the cryptocurrency bear market may not be over yet, warning that Bitcoin may remain vulnerable if global risk assets reprice significantly.
McGlone’s prediction was countered by several market analysts, who said that while they agreed that Bitcoin has further downside It is possible that a drop to $10,000 would require an extraordinary global liquidity event.
“Analysts often get lost in the short-term macro noise, and sometimes they infer silly conclusions,” said Marty Greenspan, founder and CEO of Quantum Economics.
“For an asset like Bitcoin, where global markets typically have daily trading volumes in the tens to hundreds of billions of dollars, we would need a global liquidity crisis, a nuclear war and the internet to shut down if we were to get back to the $10,000 level.”
Bitcoin Prices have traded between $69,000 and $71,000, and are currently hovering around $70,000. The rise in Bitcoin prices appeared to coincide with oil prices quickly reversing most of their intraday gains, falling $3 per barrel within minutes. Other cryptoassets, including ethereum (ETH), solana (SOL) and XRP, also posted gains.
McGlone’s bearish analysis is based on broader macroeconomic conditions. He believes that as institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market continues to increase, Bitcoin is increasingly concurrently traded with other speculative assets, undermining the argument that cryptocurrencies serve as an uncorrelated hedge against traditional markets.
McGlone said the cryptocurrency industry remains trapped in a broader macroeconomic downturn due to deflationary pressures, speculative oversupply and what he sees as an unfinished adjustment in traditional risk markets.
Further downside is still possible
Other analysts who believe Bitcoin prices could fall further echo Greenspan’s view that McGlone’s price target is unlikely.
“A move toward levels like $28,000 would likely require a significant contraction in global liquidity, a widening of credit spreads, or a broader financial stress event rather than just a late-cycle slowdown,” said Jason Fernandes, co-founder and market analyst at AdLunam.
PrimeXBT senior market analyst Jonatan Randin also said Bitcoin could fall further, but said the $10,000 forecast was highly unlikely.
“During a bear market, there are always analysts calling for extreme price targets,” Landin said. “Could we get down to $10,000? Yes, it’s possible, but I think it’s extremely unlikely.”
Randin expects Bitcoin to gradually move lower in the coming months, adding that the next major accumulation area could occur between $30,000 and $40,000.
“If the market is in a downtrend, you’re in a bear market,” Landing said. “You will remain in a bear market until the major trend changes.”
In the short term, however, he expects Bitcoin to trade sharply between $60,000 and $70,000, warning that even a rally to $80,000 may be temporary if broader macro pressures persist.
The bottom may already be in
Greenspan said determining an exact market bottom is difficult, but noted that Bitcoin may have completed a major bear market correction.
“Trying to find an exact bottom is a fool’s errand,” he said. “Structurally, Bitcoin has cleared its major bear market in 2022. We are currently looking at about a 50% retracement from all-time highs, which is not unusual for Bitcoin.”
He added that recent price action was encouraging and “we may well have seen a bottom.”
However, McGlone believes that the market still needs to go through a long-term cleanup of excessive speculation before forming a lasting bottom.
“I think this is going to continue for a while, and I don’t think this is going to end until we clean up some of these excesses,” he said.
“This is a bear market,” McGlone added. “Sell on the rallies.”
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