Asset management firm Bitwise said in a blog post on Monday that cryptocurrencies have been in a full-blown winter since January 2025, although much of the market is reluctant to say it out loud.
The investment manager, who has lived through multiple cryptocurrency winters, said the current despair looks familiar and historically marks the later stages of economic downturns. After more than a year of falling prices, the market may be closer to the end of winter than the beginning, with a recovery “sooner rather than later.”
Crypto winter is a lengthy bear market characterized by sharp price drops, emotional breakdown and general indifference to good news. Historically, they have gone through periods of overleverage and excessive speculation, lasting about a year from peak to trough.
In past cycles, including 2018 and 2022, adoption milestones and regulatory progress have done little to stem losses during downturns. Instead, crypto winters tend to end quietly as selling pressure subsides and markets stabilize, setting the stage for the next expansion.
Bitcoin prices plummet across the board Ethereum is down about 39% from its peak in October 2025 The drop was over 50%, and many major coins were down much more than that.
Matt Hougan, chief information officer of Bitwise, said that this is not a routine pullback or a healthy adjustment, but a 2022-style downturn driven by excessive leverage and profit-taking, even overwhelming the steady stream of positive headlines.
Hogan believes that recognizing that the market is in a true crypto winter helps explain why good news from regulatory developments to institutional adoption failed to boost prices.
Hogan noted that in past cycles, fundamentals rarely played a role at market lows. The crypto winter doesn’t end with optimism or excitement, but with fatigue, as sellers eventually burn out.
While previous cryptocurrency winters lasted approximately 13 months from peak to trough, Hougan believes this cycle actually began in January 2025, although the market has not yet fully registered this at that time. Massive inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and digital asset treasury strategies have helped prop up some large, institutionally accessible assets, masking a brutal bear market for retail-focused cryptocurrencies.
Assets with strong institutional backing fell slightly in 2025, while tokens without ETF or Treasury demand fell by 60% or more, the report said. Bitwise estimates that institutional vehicles absorbed more than 740,000 Bitcoins during this period, providing tens of billions of dollars in price support, which may have prevented more severe losses.
Hogan said that despite the bleak outlook, the underlying situation for cryptocurrencies has not materially worsened.
Regulatory momentum, Wall Street adoption, stablecoins, and tokenization all continue to advance, although the market is currently ignoring them. The positive news is creating potential pressure that could fuel a sharp economic recovery once market sentiment shifts, the report added.
Read more: Fidelity Digital Assets Says Wall Street Consolidation Will Drive Cryptocurrency’s Next Phase
