Bitcoin trader warns of downside as gold rally continues

Bitcoin fell to $88,000 levels on Thursday as a rebound in the dollar and continued strength in commodities kept cryptocurrency trading in the background, a day after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady.

Bitcoin fell below $88,500 on Thursday after briefly trading above $89,000 earlier in the session, extending its volatile price action this week. Ethereum fell back to $2,950, while Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin fell more sharply during the session, falling between 2% and 4%. The pullback comes amid a strengthening U.S. dollar and weakening momentum in broader risk markets, with cryptocurrencies continuing to lag behind strength in commodities and equities.

Cryptocurrencies’ moderate price action contrasts with wild swings across macro markets. The dollar posted its biggest one-day gain since November on Wednesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the government continued to support a strong dollar policy, rebutting speculation that Washington was content with a prolonged slide.

The Fed decided to hold rates steady after cutting them three times late last year, with policymakers saying they wanted clearer evidence that inflation was cooling before taking action again.

While the outcome was widely expected, the steady policy message helped stabilize currency markets after fiscal concerns and political pressure on central banks led to days of volatility.

Commodities remain the main trade. Gold prices remain near all-time highs after topping $5,500 an ounce earlier this week, while silver and copper remain elevated after sharp gains. Earlier gains in the metal were driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, geopolitical risks and demand for assets seen as a store of value amid uncertainty over government finances.

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This background has marginalized cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against currency debasement, has failed to keep pace with gold’s gains, trading around 30% below its October peak even as the metal and global stocks remain near all-time highs.

Traders say Bitcoin is still performing more like a high-beta risk asset than a macro hedge, reacting to U.S. dollar swings and broader liquidity conditions rather than forming an independent narrative.

“Between April and June last year, the U.S. dollar lost 8% of its value while Bitcoin gained over 50%,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email. “Without delving too deeply into history, it’s easy to see that the U.S. dollar index fell 4% in less than two weeks, while silver gained 30% and gold gained 15%.”

“Bitcoin continues to attempt to consolidate above $89,000. This near-round resistance is reinforced by the 50-day moving average. Bitcoin’s position relative to this curve points to a bearish market. Bitcoin has managed to hold support near $85,000 due to relatively favorable external conditions. Still, volatility around a third below the highs of the past two months is cause for pessimism,” he added.

The past week has reinforced this pattern, with cryptocurrencies lagging amid metals gains and failing to respond meaningfully to earlier U.S. dollar weakness.

With the Fed’s decision to lag the market, attention now turns to Big Tech’s earnings and whether moves in stocks, bonds or currencies will create new cross-asset moves.

Until then, Bitcoin appears to be stuck in a consolidation mode, holding on to key levels but lacking the motivation to rejoin the trades dominating global markets.

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