Bitcoin climbed to $74,935 during the Asian session on Thursday, up 0.7% in 24 hours and 5.4% this week, as U.S. stocks closed at a record high after reports that the United States and Iran had reached an “in-principle” agreement to extend negotiations until the ceasefire expires on April 7 next week.
The S&P 500 closed up 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4%, both hitting record highs, limiting two weeks of gains since late March lows.
Ethereum leads the major coins, rising 8.1% for the week to $2,360, continuing the outperformance against Bitcoin seen earlier in the week. XRP rose 3.6% to $1.41, Dogecoin rose 4.8% to $0.098, and solana rose 2.2% to $85.
The stock market’s rebound is ahead of what the rest of the market is willing to acknowledge. Long-term Treasury yields were little changed. Gold prices remained near $4,800. Brent crude oil prices rose to $95 as the United States continued to impose a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.
“Stocks are essentially expressing the view that the Persian Gulf War is coming to an end,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, wrote in a note.
The cryptocurrency’s derivatives sector did not express the same belief. QCP Capital wrote in a Telegram broadcast on Wednesday that Bitcoin’s rebound was spot-led and not part of a broader risk reconstruction.
Financing rates for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remain negative and open interest has also softened, suggesting that bears are leaning toward opposing the move rather than capitulating. Front-end implied volatility remains subdued, with 1-month volatility lower than 3-month volatility, and the 30-day 25 delta risk reversal still shows more need for downside protection than upside exposure.
In short, options markets remain cautiously priced even as spot prices rise. Bitcoin options costs expiring in the coming weeks are unusually quiet for a true breakout, with traders still paying prices to protect against downside rather than betting on more upside. This is a sign of a rebound, not a trend change.
“Markets may be considering a ceasefire, but core risks remain unresolved,” QCP wrote. The company pointed to the gap between Iran’s 60% enriched uranium and U.S. needs below 20% as a structural problem that framework headlines cannot address.
Ethereum’s outperformance is a signal that cannot be explained by Bitcoin-specific traffic.
The widely watched ETH/BTC ratio, which tracks the price of Ethereum against Bitcoin, climbed to around 0.0315 on Wednesday, recovering from a February 2026 low near 0.028 and marking the first sustained strength in Ethereum against Bitcoin in months.
Ethereum’s on-chain fundamentals have been diverging from price for weeks, with network transaction volume reaching a record 200.4 million in the first quarter and stablecoin supply reaching an all-time high of $180 billion.
Traders may look to the next risk-off period for clues. On red days, Ethereum performs better than Bitcoin, suggesting that people are indeed moving to riskier assets, while larger declines suggest that Ethereum is simply riding the coattails of Bitcoin, with a higher beta.
Traders are also watching whether the U.S.-Iran framework can withstand negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program before a ceasefire expires next week. The QCP’s interpretation is that this is headline news, not a solution, and deserves to be stress tested first.
