Bitcoin may no longer be in sync with Federal Reserve policy, according to a new report from Binance Research, which points to structural shifts driven by exchange-traded funds.
Cryptocurrency markets have reacted strongly to interest rate signals over the years, with Bitcoin prices falling when central banks tightened monetary policy.
That pattern now appears to be breaking, as Binance data shows that Bitcoin’s correlation with its global easing breadth index, which tracks 41 central banks, has turned strongly negative since 2024. The spot Bitcoin ETF was approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2024.
Before the advent of ETFs, the relationship was mildly positive, and Bitcoin tended to follow global easing cycles for several months. Now, the report finds that the opposite effect is nearly three times stronger, suggesting that the old link has been reversed.
The change reflects a shift in price drivers. Retail investors once dominated cryptocurrency trading and reacted to macro news. ETFs allow institutions, which often position themselves months ahead of policy changes, to play a larger role, viewing BTC as a forward-looking asset.
“As a result, Bitcoin may have evolved from a macro ‘lag taker’ to a ‘leading pricer,’” Binance Research wrote. “For Bitcoin, the peak of easing may be old news, and crypto-native drivers — such as policy progress and institutional flows — may be more important than the direction of monetary easing itself.”
The findings come as markets grapple with renewed concerns about stagflation caused by rising oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions over war in the Middle East.
Interest rate expectations have shifted from expected rate cuts to possible rate hikes, a backdrop that has historically weighed on risk assets.
Binance believes this reaction may be exaggerated. In past cycles, central banks have often pivoted to support economic growth despite soaring inflation. If history repeats itself, central banks will end up prioritizing growth over inflation, and Bitcoin could price in sooner than expected.
