Data from CryptoQuant shows that demand for Bitcoin has weakened in recent months as ETF holdings have declined, large investors have slowed their accumulation of holdings and derivatives indicators have declined.
Bitcoin demand fell below long-term trends in early October, the analytics firm said in a report released on Friday, a shift it said has historically predicted a bear market.
“Since 2023, Bitcoin has experienced three waves of spot demand, driven by the launch of U.S. spot ETFs in January 2024, Trump’s presidential election victory, and the Bitcoin treasury company bubble,” the report said. “However, since early October, demand growth has entered a period of slowdown and is currently below trend. Therefore, we believe that most of this cycle’s demand growth has passed, with a corresponding negative impact on prices.”
The report comes as Bitcoin continues to trade just above the $88,000 mark, down 30% from its all-time high of over $126,000 set in early October.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs became net sellers in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a total reduction in holdings of approximately 24,000 BTC, or approximately $2.12 billion. The report compared this activity to the fourth quarter of 2024, when ETF holdings increased significantly during the same period.
The report also showed that addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC experienced weaker growth. CryptoQuant said growth in this group, which includes ETFs and corporate financial accounts, was below trend.
Analysts say Bitcoin could reach $1.4 million or more by 2035
“This group, which includes ETFs and financial firms, represents the bulk of this cycle’s Bitcoin demand growth,” CryptoQuant wrote. “This weakness reflects a shift in demand trends in late 2021, leading up to the 2022 Bitcoin bear market.”
Bitcoin’s price action has also changed. The report stated that Bitcoin fell below the 365-day moving average, a level that CryptoQuant describes as the long-term technical threshold that historically distinguishes bull and bear markets.
The company said that in past cycles, demand growth peaked and declined, followed by recessions. CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin’s actual price is a historical reference point for bear market lows.
Decrypt 2025 Person of the Year: President Donald Trump
The company predicts a possible future cycle low of $56,000, which would represent a 55% drop from the all-time high and a further 36% drop from the current Bitcoin price. However, it sees “intermediate price support” near the $70,000 level.
CryptoQuant’s report follows months of losses for Bitcoin and other top assets following a record $19 billion in liquidations in October. Some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin heading into 2026, even suggesting that the traditional four-year price cycle should be considered a relic of the past, although CryptoQuant and other firms continue to predict further losses ahead.
