Main points
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Long-term Bitcoin holders are currently selling heavily, putting downward pressure on the price.
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The market has absorbed most of the selling so far, with big buyers stepping in to support.
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A full-blown collapse is unlikely in the short term, but Bitcoin could still fall further if the sell-off continues.
Bitcoin (BTC) has had a rocky start to 2026, with prices hovering between $88,000 and $90,000 after falling significantly from a peak of $124,000.
As markets look for clear direction, one storyline dominates the conversation.
Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) — investors who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days — may begin selling in large quantities.
If this trend continues, it could put new pressure on an already fragile market and heighten concerns that a more severe correction is ahead.
According to data from Glassnode, long-term Bitcoin holders are selling their coins faster than during the October 2025 crash.
Over the past 30 days, approximately 143,000 BTC of these LTHs have been sold, worth approximately $9.5 billion at current prices.
This marks the fastest pace of divestments since August 2025, reversing a brief accumulation phase from late December 2025 to early January 2026.
Data from Glassnode shows that medium-term holders (1-5 years) are still selling off supply, while long-term holders (5+ years) are showing signs of stabilizing or even slightly increasing their holdings.
For example, the supply of BTC, which has been idle for more than five years, increased by 95,500 tokens in the last month, indicating that not all veteran holders are panicking.
However, this sell-off increases supply in the market and puts downward pressure on prices.
CryptoQuant agrees, noting that LTH sales began when the price exceeded $40,000, unlike previous bull cycles where holders were more determined.
Bitcoin price weakness is not unrelated to LTH’s behavior. More than 22% of BTC supply is in the red, a level last seen in early 2022 and mid-2018, heightening sensitivity to further declines.
Price-sensitive short-term holders (STH) are particularly vulnerable; their payout margin of 0.99 is just below breakeven, suggesting they may capitulate if support is breached.
Glassnode warned that failure to hold key levels, such as -1 standard deviation of the STH cost basis or the real market mean, could resume the LTH sell-off.
Macro factors are complicating the current bearish market trend.
Despite the depreciation of the dollar, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged.
Institutional inflows through spot ETFs have been mixed, with $1.3 billion in outflows recently, but companies like Strategy absorbed over 40,000 Bitcoin in 2026 alone.
