New analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has been overturned – and the world’s largest cryptocurrency could rebound to $140,000 at some point in the next 180 days.
Copper said the emergence of exchange-traded funds tracking the spot price of BTC has changed the behavior of the digital asset and given way to what is known as the “cost basis return cycle.”
“In 2024/2025, Bitcoin exhibits the same repeatable pattern: price breaks out to new all-time highs, corrects sharply, and then finds near-perfect support on the ETF investor cost basis before embarking on the next expansion.”
The firm’s analysis shows that this has happened three times since the ETFs were launched in January 2024, with returns exceeding 60% in each cycle.
Image: Copper
Copper also claimed that this exposed a huge divide between crypto-focused traders and institutional investors, with some Bitcoin commentators claiming it was the “worst bull run ever.”
So… once BTC enters price discovery mode, what exactly causes these large corrections? Well, its analysis suggests that institutions rebalancing their portfolios are to blame — an activity that “translates Bitcoin’s volatility into realized returns.”
“Institutions are not ‘staking Sats’ – in fact, most institutions don’t care about Sats at all because Bitcoin is available through equity ETF shares. What they care about is the risk-adjusted contribution to a portfolio.”
Generally speaking, institutions are recommended to allocate 2% to 5% of their funds to Bitcoin, but sudden increases in price can have a huge impact.
“Without rebalancing, a 2% Bitcoin allocation would drift to 6.2% in less than 180 days during these cycles. A 5% allocation would be dangerously close to double digits.”
Fadi Aboualfa, head of copper research crypto news Bitcoin is at a critical juncture right now.
“With BTC currently trading close to a cost base of $84,000, the model suggests a rise to $140,000 over the next 180 days. If the cost base rises 10% to 15% like in previous cycles, the premium generated from past peaks would yield a target range of $138,000 to $148,000.”
The prospect of a return to all-time highs within the next six months will provide traders with much-needed “hope.” However, other analysts warn that there are currently few catalysts to propel Bitcoin forward. The Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points has been largely priced in by the market, with policymakers suggesting that there may be only one rate cut in 2026.
A big test will involve what happens if Bitcoin’s value falls below ETF investors’ cost basis, and whether the sell-off intensifies if institutions lose money over a long period of time.
