By Omkar Godbole (All times Eastern unless otherwise noted)
Markets were again at risk after a Reuters report suggested a planned ceasefire between the United States and Iran could come into effect on Monday and could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin It rose more than 4% to nearly $70,000 in 24 hours, boosting sentiment across the market. The CoinDesk 20 Index and XRP (XRP) are also up 4%, while ether (ETH) is up more than 5% and solana (SOL) is up 3%.
Bullish signals from the futures market, a continued decline in Bitcoin’s 30-day Implied Volatility Index and a 0.8% gain in Nasdaq 100 futures reinforced this tone.
Meanwhile, Strategy founder Michael Saylor, the world’s largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder, hinted that he will buy Bitcoin again. The company already holds 762,099 BTC, highlighting its dominant reserve position and long-term accumulation strategy. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to increase its oil production quota by 206,000 barrels per day in May, a symbolic move to ease pressure on energy markets.
Taken together, these point to further upside potential for the cryptocurrency.
But there’s a caveat. Recent ceasefire headlines citing unknown sources have proven unreliable, often debunked or outright rejected by Iran. If this pattern repeats, the market could reverse quickly.
Another key question is whether the US-Iran ceasefire is binding on Israel. If not, the current risk-taking mood may be short-lived.
Notably, President Donald Trump threatened over the weekend that the latest ceasefire was described as a last-ditch effort to prevent “a large-scale attack on Iran’s civilian infrastructure.”
Meanwhile, oil markets continue to inject inflationary pressures into the global economy. Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia was raising the price of Arabian Light crude destined for Asia in May to a record premium over the Middle East benchmark.
Some observers warn that oil prices are approaching danger territory. Oil’s 12-month change rate is 92%. Historically, reaching 100% coincides with a stock market crash. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Market
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- cryptocurrency
- April 6, 12pm: DeFi Dev Corp. (DFDV) will host its March 2026 Review and Q&A (AMA) session on X Spaces.
- Macro
- April 6, 9:00 am: U.S. March ISM services PMI estimate is 55 (previous value 56.1)
- income (Estimate based on FactSet data)
Token event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Aave DAO is voting to adjust oracle configurations, lower liquidation thresholds, and modify its V2 market’s interest rate model to support its continued deprecation. Voting closes on April 6.
- Decentraland DAO is voting to ask the DAO Council and Regenesis Labs to officially release a 2030 definition of success and contingency plan. The proposal currently has the support of voters. Voting closes on April 6.
- Unlock
- April 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 0.14% of its circulating supply, worth $11.94 million.
- Token issuance
Meeting
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
market trend
- BTC is up 3.56% to $69,805.19 since 4pm on Friday (24 hours: +4.23%)
- ETH up 4.34% to $2,154.80 (24 hours: +5.42%)
- CoinDesk 20 up 3.78% to 1,977.26 (24 hours: +4.06%)
- Ethereum CESR comprehensive pledge rate remains unchanged at 2.69%
- The BTC financing interest rate on Binance is 0.0058% (annualized 6.3400%)
- DXY fell 0.11% to 99.91
- Gold futures rose 1.60% to $4,726.10
- Silver futures rose 1.00% to $73.46
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.55% at 53,413.68
- The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.70% at 25,116.53 points
- The FTSE 100 closed up 0.69% on Thursday at 10,436.30
- The Euro Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.70% at 5,692.86 points
- The Dow closed down 0.13% at 46,504.67 points
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 6,582.69 points
- The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 0.18% at 21,879.18
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.46% at 33,108.20
- The S&P 40 Latin America Index closed up 4.26% at 3,623.86 points
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rate fell 1 basis point to 4.31%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures were unchanged at 6,644.00
- E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures unchanged at 24,370.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures unchanged at 46,779.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.02% (unchanged)
- Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.030877 (1.02%)
- Computing power (seven-day moving average): 954 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $31.75
- Total fee: 1.61 BTC / $108,359
- CME Futures Open Interest: 106,600 BTC
- BTC in gold: 14.9 ounces
- Bitcoin and gold market capitalization: 4.66%
technical analysis
- The top half of the chart shows the fluctuations in WTI oil prices since 1986. The lower pane shows the 12-month rate of change (ROC).
- Historically, whenever ROC rises to 100%, the stock market crashes. Now, the Republic of China is getting closer to that goal again.
- “Every major market crash since 1987 has been preceded by a signal,” Jack Prandelli, a commodities market analyst and author of the Substack-based Merchant’s News, said on X.
crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed at $171.46 (–0.88%) Friday pre-market, up 3.80% to $177.97
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $17.64 (+1.55%), +2.44% at $18.07
- MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA): Closed at $8.71 (+8.33%), +3.10% at $8.98
- Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT): Closed at $12.86 (+2.47%), +2.49% at $13.18
- Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ): Closed at $16.23 (+6.08%), +1.79% at $16.52
- CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK): Closed at $8.79 (+1.97%), +3.30% at $9.08
- Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD): Closed at $6.10 (–8.68%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): Closed at $35.76 (+2.58%)
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $36.37 (+3.71%), +2.06% at $37.12
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Closed at $90.26 (–0.53%), +4.20% at $94.05
Cryptocurrency Treasury Corporation
- Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $119.83 (–2.40%), +4.04% at $124.67
- SharpLink (SBET): Closed at $6.19 (–4.18%), +4.52% at $6.47
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): Closed at $9.75 (–4.04%), +3.59% at $10.10
- Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $0.98 (–1.32%), +3.59% at $1.01
- Lite Strategies (LITS): Closed at $1.12 (–0.88%)
ETF flows
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net traffic: $9 million
- Cumulative net flow: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings are approximately 1.29 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Net daily traffic: -$71.2 million
- Cumulative net flow: $11.51 billion
- The total holdings of ETH are approximately 5.68 million
Source: Farside Investors
