Bill Gates warns the world is going ‘backwards’ and gives 5-year deadline before we enter a new Dark Age

Last year didn’t go the way Bill Gates had hoped. A philanthropist who has poured billions of dollars into improving everything from health care and education in poor countries to action on climate change, Gates has watched helplessly as the Trump administration slashes massive foreign aid contracts.

The Microsoft co-founder criticized the cost-cutting regime, much of which was enacted by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Effectiveness (DOGE). He warned that this behavior could directly lead to the death of children, and Tesla CEO Musk demanded evidence.

“I believe the world will continue to improve, but it’s harder to see that today than it has been in a long time,” the Gates Foundation founder wrote optimistically and candidly in this year’s annual letter.

He added: “What disturbs me most is that last year the world went backwards on a key indicator of progress: deaths of children under five. Over the past 25 years, deaths have fallen faster than at any time in history. But in 2025, deaths rose for the first time this century, from 4.6 million in 2024 to 4.8 million in 2025 – an increase driven by less support from rich countries for poorer countries.”

Last month, the Gates Foundation’s Gatekeeping Report showed that 12.5 million children could die by 2045 if health development aid, including government spending, were reduced by 20% from 2024 levels, according to a custom model based on data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

“Friends and colleagues often ask me how to stay optimistic in a challenging and polarizing time,” Gates wrote. “My answer is: I remain an optimist because I see what AI-accelerated innovation will bring.”

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However, this optimism has a time limit, or as Gates said, “My optimism has a footnote.”

“The next five years are going to be tough as we try to get back on track and work to scale new life-saving tools,” Gates continued. “As tough as the last year has been, I don’t believe we’re going back to the dark ages.”

“I believe that within the next decade we will not only get the world back on track, but we will enter a new era of unprecedented progress.”

fill the gap

In 2025, Gates announced his $200 billion moonshot plan: he would donate “almost all [his] The “wealth” — about $100 billion — was donated to his foundation. It’s the largest philanthropic commitment in modern history, and it comes with strings attached. These funds (composed of current endowments and projected growth) must be used within the next 20 years.

Although Gates made the announcement this year, his intentions have been clear for years. In 2010, Gates, his then-wife Melinda French Gates and Berkshire Hathaway co-founder Warren Buffett launched the Giving Pledge, a public commitment to philanthropy that has since been signed by the likes of philanthropist Mackenzie Scott and Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky.

To fill the government funding gap, Gates called on other wealthy philanthropists. He writes: “This ‘do not do to others as you would have them do unto you’ philosophy applies not only to rich countries providing aid. It must also include philanthropy by the wealthy to help those in need domestically and globally, which should grow rapidly in a world with a record number of billionaires and even billionaires.

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A recent Oxfam report on billionaires released in January 2025 showed that the number of billionaires will increase to 2,769 by 2024 from 2,565 a year ago. It also said it expected at least five people to become trillionaires in a decade.

Gates added: “I know the cuts won’t be reversed overnight, even though aid accounts for less than 1% of GDP even in the most generous countries. But it’s critical that we restore some of the funding.”

This story originally appeared on Fortune.com

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