Why Arthur Hayes is Bullish: In an interview with CoinDesk’s Jennifer Sanasie on MArkets Outlook, Hayes said Hyperliquid differentiates itself from perpetual futures exchanges by relying on actual usage rather than incentive-driven trading volume.
- Hayes told Sanasie that he sold roughly $50-$55 of the company’s HYPE position ahead of expected token unlock pressure, but he turned bullish again after the team chose not to sell the majority of its monthly token allocation.
- He said Hyperliquid could still generate close to $1 billion in annualized revenue based on 30 days of expense data.
- The platform’s HIP-3 license-free listing system has expanded trading beyond cryptocurrencies to assets such as oil or stock indices.
What is a driving activity: Hayes said traders are increasingly using Hyperliquid to access markets inaccessible to traditional platforms.
- Retail traders can trade assets like oil or Nasdaq proxy on-chain 24/7 using stablecoins and crypto wallets.
- Hayes said leverage of 10 to 20 times is typically available compared to the 2 to 3 times that many retail investors obtain on traditional brokerage platforms.
- Geopolitical events over the weekend, such as suddenly declared conflicts, prompted traders to use Hyperliquid when traditional markets were closed.
Why Super Liquid Stands Out: Hayes believes that Hyperliquid’s liquidity and trading metrics show more realistic market activity than competing decentralized exchanges.
- Many competing platforms rely on wash trades or token incentive programs to expand activity, Hayes said.
- He evaluates exchanges using a ratio of trading volume to open interest, which he says helps determine true trading demand.
- Hyperliquid has the lowest ratio among the major perpetual DEXs, suggesting that trading is more “real,” Hayes said.
- The platform also offers minimal slippage for large Bitcoin perpetual trades ranging from $100,000 to $10 million, he said.
What might undermine a thesis: Hayes said rising hype and competition could signal potential exit points.
- He said he would reconsider his stance if HYPE’s P/E ratio increased materially and market sentiment became extremely bullish.
- Another risk is whether competitors offering lower fees can erode Hyperliquid’s ~70% permanent DEX revenue share.
- Hayes said maintaining strong revenue and continuing to limit team token sales are key to sustaining the bull run.
Beyond the Hype: Hayes also emphasized that privacy-focused crypto projects are a developing story.
- He said Zcash could benefit from growing concerns about blockchain surveillance and artificial intelligence transaction analysis.
- Hayes cited Zcash’s cryptographic upgrades and privacy model as reasons he favors Zcash over alternatives like Monero.
Bitcoin outlook: Hayes maintains aggressive predictions for Bitcoin.
- He reiterated that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of the year, despite falling short of previous targets.
