I had a bittersweet feeling after hearing the news that the Rays were trading Josh Lowe.
The first thing I wrote for DRaysBay was how excited I was for Josh Lowe heading into the 2023 season. The combination of power and speed was exciting at the time, and the numbers suggest all he needed was an opportunity. Fast forward to nearly three years later, and I still think Josh Lowe can become an everyday machine learning player. I’m happy for him that he’s going to have a chance to join the Angels.
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With that said, let’s take a look at the Rays’ 2026 outlook.
short-term effects of trade
I’m excited about the playing time this provides for Jacob Melton. Jacob Melton (and subsequently the Rays’ entire production and offense) might be the biggest winner from this trade.
I’ve already written about Melton, but the summary of what to expect from him is that he provides additional power, speed, and defense at all three OF positions with enough hitting tools to make him an above-average everyday player. Melton will have a better chance of earning a roster spot during spring training.
The Rays also acquired Gavin Lux as a one-year stopgap — likely to buy some time before Jadher Areinamo is ready to take over the everyday 2B role in 2027. Lux appears to be a relatively safe player coming off a torn ACL in 2023, but his profile may be a bit redundant as he is very similar to Richie Palacios on both sides of the ball (who has also dealt with some knee-related injuries). But Lux has no choice, so I expect him to have some sort of role on the Opening Day roster that includes second base reps. Palacios has an option for another year, so he may be on the sidelines this spring.
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Lux has been a roughly average producer throughout his career. He combines below-average power with an above-average hitting tool to provide value at multiple positions. The acquisition of Lux continues a trend we’ve seen this offseason, with the Rays leaning more toward hitting ability, potentially at the expense of power and impact.
The second base depth chart took a hit when Brandon Lowe was traded away, but now looks to be in a good spot with Lux. I don’t think the recently returned Brett Wiseley will have a spot on the roster when the music stops at the end of spring training. As a left-handed utility player who can play decent second base, he will almost certainly be behind Lux ​​and Palacios on the depth chart. Wiseley also has no choice, so he might not even make it to AAA for depth.
long-term effects of trade
The deal doesn’t end at Melton and Lux, though. I think the main target in this trade is Chris Clark.
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Clark is a low-down RHP with a fastball in the mid-90s that can hit 95-96 at times. He’s 6-foot-4, so he has a low release height relative to his body, which combined with above-average reach adds a layer of deception that helps his stuff work a little bit. He primarily hits an average two-seam fastball in the zone and has also used a four-seam variation on a short ball above the zone.
Clark’s best pitch is his low-80s, sweeping breaking ball. It’s an above-average pitch that he can throw to both sides of the plate with ease and he has a good feel for it. Clark also displays a low-speed pitch in the mid-80s that looks like a split or kick grip, with above-average vertical distance to the fastball. While this may not be a viable product yet, I think if he can continue to refine his control and maybe find a way to increase velocity separation from his fastball (which could mean adding more heat to the fastball or subtracting some heat from the offspeed ball), it could be above average one day.
Clark’s command and control across his entire arsenal looks average, and he’s not generating a ton of swing-and-misses right now, so he fits the profile of a back-end starter right now; however, if he continues to develop his offspeed pitches or adds a cutter to bridge the shape of his fastball and breaking ball, I could see a mid-rotation starter profile. The feel for spin on his breaking ball is evident, suggesting that cutter might be a relatively easy addition for him to add to his toolbox.
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Regardless, Clark doesn’t appear to be much of a reliever risk, as there’s room for him to add velocity, more pitches and even improve his command.
in conclusion
The Rays traded up from surplus spots at the major league level to acquire their coveted pitching prospect while filling a short-term vacancy at second base.
Interestingly, Gavin Lux is essentially a no-option Rich Palacios, as they possess nearly identical strength, rebounding skills, and defensive versatility.
Chris Clark is a slow-burn development project for Winston Doom and his staff, but I think if we look closely we can see a potential mid-round starter with interesting release characteristics and a pair of solid secondary pitches.
