Author: Humaira Pamuk and Tara Ramadan
WASHINGTON/DUBAI (Reuters) – Iran said on Thursday it would deal a “long and painful blow” to U.S. positions if Washington launched another attack and reasserted its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, complicating U.S. alliance plans to reopen the waterway.
Two months into the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, key sea lanes remain closed, disrupting 20% ​​of the world’s oil and gas supplies. This has sent global energy prices soaring and heightened concerns about the risk of an economic recession.
Efforts to resolve the conflict have stalled and a ceasefire has been in place since April 8, but Iran remains blocking the strait in response to a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian oil exports, Tehran’s economic lifeline.
U.S. President Donald Trump is due to be briefed on Thursday on plans for a series of new military strikes to force Iran to negotiate an end to the conflict, a U.S. official told Reuters.
Such options have long been part of the U.S. plan, but reports of the proposed briefing, first published by news website Axios late on Wednesday, initially spurred a sharp rise in oil prices, with the benchmark Brent crude contract briefly hitting over $126 a barrel. It then fell back to around $114.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghayi said late Thursday that it was unreasonable to expect quick results from U.S. talks, the Islamic Republic’s official news agency reported.
“It seems to me unrealistic to expect a result in a short period of time, no matter who the mediator is,” he said.
Air defense activity was heard in some areas of the Iranian capital Tehran on Thursday night, Iran’s semi-official Mahr news agency reported, with Tasnim news agency saying the air defense systems were engaging in attacks with small drones and unmanned reconnaissance aircraft.
On Thursday, the United Arab Emirates said it had banned its citizens from traveling to Iran, Lebanon and Iraq, citing regional developments and urging those currently in those countries to leave immediately and return home.
Trump reiterated to reporters on Thursday that Iran would not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and that gasoline prices – a major concern for his Republican Party ahead of November’s midterm elections – would “drop like a stone” once the war ends.
While reiterating his accusations of serious human rights abuses against Iran, Trump said he was “pleased” with Iran’s participation in the upcoming FIFA World Cup in the United States after FIFA president Gianni Infantino insisted that Iran would participate.
Iran warns of ‘long and painful strikes’
A senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard official said any new U.S. attacks on Iran, even limited ones, would deal a “long and painful blow” to America’s regional standing, while Iranian media quoted Air Force Commander Majid Mousavi as saying: “We have seen what happened to your regional bases, and we will see the same thing happen to your warships.”
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a written letter to the Iranians that Tehran would eliminate “enemy abuses of the waterway” under the new strait management, signaling Tehran’s intention to maintain control of the strait.
“Foreigners from thousands of kilometers away… have no place except under water,” he said.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned that if the damage caused by the lockdowns continues until mid-year, global economic growth will fall, inflation will rise and tens of millions will be pushed into poverty and extreme hunger.
“The longer this important artery is blocked, the harder it is to reverse the damage,” he told reporters in New York.
On Friday, Trump faced a formal deadline for the United States to end the war or propose an extension to Congress under the 1973 War Powers Resolution.
A senior administration official said late Thursday that as far as the resolution was concerned, hostilities had ended due to an April ceasefire between Tehran and Washington, a date that appeared set to pass without changing the course of the conflict.
Trump reiterated Thursday that Iran’s economy is “a disaster,” but analysts said he might wait a while if he expected Iran to blink first in a game of economic chicken.
The conflict has exacerbated Iran’s dire economic problems and threatens to trigger a postwar disaster, but it appears to be able to weather the Gulf standoff for now despite a U.S. blockade that has cut off energy exports.
Many options
During the war, Iran not only blocked almost all shipping through the strait except its own, but also launched drones and missiles at U.S. bases, infrastructure and U.S.-linked companies in Israel and Gulf countries.
Another plan shared with Trump at the briefing involves using ground forces to take over part of the strait to reopen it to commercial shipping, Axios said. Trump is also considering extending the U.S. lockdown or declaring unilateral victory, officials said.
The United States is also envisioning a sign of a cessation of hostilities, with the State Department verbally sending a cable to partner nations by May 1 inviting them to join a new alliance called Freedom of the Sea Construction to enable ships to navigate the strait.
France, Britain and other countries have held talks about forming such an alliance but have said they would be willing to help open the strait only after the conflict ends.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Thursday after talks with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri that halting Israeli attacks on Lebanon was part of Iran’s ceasefire understanding with the United States. Lebanon’s current ceasefire agreement is not stable and will remain a key issue in any future process.
Pakistani sources said on Wednesday that Pakistan was trying to avoid escalation as the United States and Iran exchanged information on a potential deal.
(Reporting by Reuters; Writing by Lincoln Feist, Philippa Fletcher, Keith Weir, David Brunstrom and Costas Pittas; Editing by Neil Furrick, Timothy Herricht, Hugh Lawson and Deepa Babington)
