This Saturday, Alabama will compete in the latest SEC Championship Game, and the Tide will face, quite literally, two opponents: Georgia across the field and the College Football Playoff Committee above.
This isn’t the usual “referee screwed us!” nitpicking. That’s a very real possibility considering this season’s CFP rankings (Alabama is currently No. 10). In short: What if Alabama loses the SEC title…and misses the College Football Playoff as a result?
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I know, Oh shush, poor Tideright? Literally, no one outside the city of Tuscaloosa should feel bad about the plight of Alabama football, at least not for the next two decades. There’s no doubt things have gotten tougher for Alabama this season, with a blowout loss at Florida State followed by a blowout loss against Oklahoma State.
But there’s a more important question here: What on earth does a division title mean when a team that misses the division title can make it to the CFP, and a team that reaches the division title might be eliminated? (Yes, as always, the real focus is the carts full of money generated by conference tournaments. But we’re talking about the bigger idea here.)
Minutes after Alabama beat Auburn for its sixth straight Iron Bowl victory on Saturday night, Karen DeBoer addressed the issue of Alabama’s postseason chances head-on. Being turned down for the CFP “would have blown my mind,” he said. “That’s unreal. We’re 10-2, 7-1 in the SEC, all those ranked game wins, some road wins. We’re more than just a playoff-caliber team. There’s no question in my mind.”
After beating Auburn, Karen DeBoer immediately made the case for the Crimson Tide to be included in the College Football Playoff. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
(Kevin C. Cox via Getty Images)
In theory, he’s absolutely right. Alabama entering the SEC Tournament as a No. 1 seed — that is, a regular-season title in the toughest conference in the country — should mean something. But considering the CFP committee seems to penalize losses more than it values wins, Alabama’s two L’s are already two blows to its record. A third-place finish — even a worst-case scenario, the No. 2 seed nationally — might be enough to pull the Tide back out of the CFP field.
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Granted, numbers in college football are like Bible verses; you can pick whichever one you want. Alabama is 10-2, just like Oklahoma and Notre Dame, but Oklahoma beat Alabama and Notre Dame’s two losses came to better teams than Alabama. On the other hand, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Texas A&M and Mississippi State are all ahead of Alabama in the CFP rankings… but Alabama earns the top seed for the conference title via tiebreaker.
That makes the SEC title an all-out gamble for Alabama: Win, and a first-round bye might be waiting for you; lose, and it might be back to Tuscaloosa waiting for a call to the Gator Bowl.
Alabama likely has a margin of error of about a touchdown. The Tide narrowly lost to Georgia State earlier this season, but that might not be enough to knock Alabama out of the CFP bracket. But what if the Dawgs wipe out the Tide? It would then be easier for the CFP to justify dumping Alabama by pointing to Florida’s forgettable failure.
Meanwhile, if Alabama misses out on a playoff spot by playing one more game while others like Mississippi, Texas A&M, Oregon and, most notably, Notre Dame sit home and make the playoffs… it may not be the final nail in the West Division champion’s coffin, but the hammer will swing. Who wants to play a game that does little good but a lot of harm?
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Alabama is the most radioactive example of this dubious gamble, but other states face similar problems. BYU is contemplating the possibility of missing the playoffs with an 11-2 record and a loss in the Big 12 championship game, while Duke is within striking distance of the playoffs after falling in the ACC title game. (Maybe not even a win, but that’s another story.) The problem is, in the CFP era, division titles have been so devalued that even finishing second in the Power 4 division isn’t enough to guarantee a CFP bid… so, again, what’s the point of these games anyway?
Finally, though, when it comes to red tide, there is a very simple solution to all of these problems. If Nick Saban was still coaching at Alabama, he would absolutely be publicly politicking for his team — and he did just that back in 2023, leading the Tide to a win over undefeated Florida State to reach the final four-team playoff game. (Two years later, “The Knowles” unintentionally retaliated, somewhat ironically.)
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But behind closed doors, in the locker room, Saban will have a more direct message for his team: Win and everything else will fall into place. We’ll see on Saturday if the Tide can solve their own problems…or if they’ll leave their fate to the playoff committee.
