The apparent weakness in the U.S. job market in February may revive the opportunity for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the first half of 2026.
The country lost 92,000 jobs last month, according to a Friday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had forecast 59,000 new jobs would be added, compared with 126,000 in January.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, while economists expected 4.3%. The unemployment rate was 4.3% in January.
Bitcoin came under pressure ahead of the report, with prices falling as low as $70,000 as oil prices soared and stocks fell The value remained around that level in the minutes after the data was released.
U.S. stock index futures continued to trade lower, with the Nasdaq down 1% and the S&P 500 down 0.8%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 4.11%. Precious metals reversed early losses, with gold now up 1% and silver up 2%.
Ahead of this morning’s report, markets were pricing in a 95% chance of keeping interest rates on hold at the Fed’s March 18 meeting, and an 85% chance of not cutting rates in April.
Meanwhile, rising oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East could put upward pressure on inflation expectations. If energy prices continue to rise, it could trigger broader inflation, particularly through energy and food costs. Combined with signs that the U.S. economy may be reaccelerating, this could prompt markets to reassess the path of monetary policy.
