Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s happening in the market:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, your daily digest of the top news from the U.S. and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of the US market, see CoinDesk’s Americas Crypto Diary.
A new CryptoQuant report suggests that Strategy is quietly preparing for a months-long downturn in Bitcoin.
The paper conflicts with market forecasts, which still believe the company will perform like it did in 2021.
CryptoQuant highlighted in its latest weekly report that Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Vault company is undergoing a structural transition from aggressive BTC accumulation to balance sheet protection, highlighted by separate USD reserves and language recognizing the option to hedge or even sell during stress conditions.
Despite this shift, the likelihood of Polymarket selling Bitcoin in the first quarter of this year remains slim, while expectations for regular small purchases remain high.
Additionally, Polymarket traders still view routine purchases of MSTR as high-probability events, although the size of these purchases has shrunk.
The market believes that the chance of buying over 1,000 BTC is only 40%–45%, and CryptoQuant reports indicate that these cosmetic top-ups are becoming the norm. With monthly accumulations down more than 90% from last year, traders expect small purchases to preserve brand image without impacting supply or regional liquidity.
Strategy’s average purchase size has dropped from 15,133 BTC in 2024 to 5,330 BTC this year, and with DAT inflows reaching their lowest levels since mid-June, Bitcoin Vault is no longer absorbing meaningful supply in the current market.
Taken together, slower Treasury buying, weaker DAT inflows, and a more defensive MSTR suggest a different supply pattern for cryptocurrencies in 2026.
Whether Bitcoin can resume its upward trend will depend on new sources of demand stepping in to replace the corporate accumulation that defined the previous cycle.
market trend
Bitcoin: Bitcoin recovered from early losses to $91,800 and stabilized near $93,000, but its two-day run of 10% gains stalled below resistance around the 2025 opening price of $93,400.
Ethereum: Ethereum climbed back above $3,100 after rising 3.5% on the day and hit a two-week high near $3,200.
Gold: Gold prices edged lower to just above $4,200 an ounce as traders remained cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data, although renewed tensions in Ukraine and a weaker dollar outlook could set the stage for a rebound.
Nikkei 225 Index: Asia-Pacific stocks were mixed on Thursday, but Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix rose about 1.3% as upbeat U.S. jobs data boosted Wall Street and raised hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.
Elsewhere in Cryptocurrency
- Bitcoin miner hunted after stealing $1 billion from Malaysian power grid (Bloomberg)
- BlackRock says in AI report that rising U.S. debt will drive cryptocurrency gains (CoinDesk)
