We’re in the part of fantasy basketball season where sitting back is a strategy — just a bad one.
The trade deadline for the Yahoo Standard League is March 5, which is Week 19. After that, you’re not reinventing your roster – you’re managing around it. The fantasy basketball playoffs for most Yahoo Standard leagues will begin in Week 21, leaving just a few weeks to make changes and lock in a fantasy playoff opportunity.
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As of early Wednesday, we were still awaiting injury reports and updates on some key players, so here are four principles for deciding whether to trade or waive a player at this point in the season.
Veterans of the tank corps are a burden
It’s always uncomfortable because we’re talking about names you recognize. But at the end of the season, incentives can shift quickly. Teams outside the playoffs began to try – young people ran more, veterans’ playing time dropped, and they were even eliminated by DNP.
The players I’m giving up right now are:
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Trae Young, Ja Morant, Jordan Poole, Malik Monk
I would buy these players before March 5th, if you will.
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kings: DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis and Russell Westbrook
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pelicans: Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III
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Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Myles Turner
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Nets: Michael Porter Jr. and Nick Claxton
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Pacers: Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac and Andrew Nembhard
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jazz: Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George
Fame has a shelf life, and you can still cash it in now to someone with more end-of-season potential. Once the deadline passes and the losing team goes all out, you can either ride it out or knock them out. A team like the Jazz has viable backup-level players like Isaiah Collier and Kyle Filipovski, and they’re ready if they want to stop Markkanen and George.
Just look at the Western Conference standings. The Grizzlies are ranked 11th, 5.5 games behind the 10th-place Clippers. Memphis doesn’t make it to the play-in round; neither will any team below the Grizzlies. Positioning any high-level fantasy assets on these teams over the next period of time is a legitimate concern.
Players with unfavorable trade schedules
Atlanta looks questionable on the schedule and not enough managers are paying attention.
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The Eagles play eight games in Weeks 18-20. That’s the fewest in the league. Week 19 is a two-game week, and several of their games over the next three weeks will come on nights when your roster is already loaded.
If you’re in the bubble and are on a high-value Eagles team, now might be a good time to test the trade market for a player who can provide 11 or 12 games in that period. Don’t get me wrong — Jaylen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu can generate enough value in every category to hold on. But what about Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels and CJ McCollum? I would consider moving them before the March 5 fantasy trade deadline.
Chicago is in a similar situation to Phoenix, playing just nine games over the next three weeks. It’s not the end of the world, but you may still miss out on some volume, especially in points leagues. Josh Guidy, Matas Buzelis, Mark Williams, Jalen Green and Colin Gillespie are all players worth buying if you can get something back before the deadline.
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A downtrend is a bat signal for a decline
A 6-8 week decline in usage rate, field goal attempts, defensive numbers, or playing time is not a decline, it’s a role change. Once this realignment becomes evident across multiple categories, the market generally won’t pay for past production.
The processing method is as follows:
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Before March 5: If the season-long averages still look strong, buy the player.
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If there is no trading interest, that is a sign that values have corrected.
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If this trend continues into weeks 18-19: Giving up becomes a rational move.
A player who fits this criteria is Lakers C DeAndre Ayton. His numbers and production have been on a downward trend for three consecutive months. The thing is, he’s unlikely to fetch much on the trade market, so you could cut him and get someone off waivers. A player like Kings big man Max Leno can get 80-90% of Ayton’s production. This is not recklessness, but playing with percentages.
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Current availability exceeds upside
Teams tend to be cautious this time of year. If a guy sits back-to-back, is on a minutes restriction or is “managing something” — you need answers by March 5th. Can you move them for a full season’s worth of nominal value? Great. Guys like Jalen Williams come to mind as he rehabs a hamstring injury that has sidelined him for 10 games before the All-Star break.
If not, (depending on the player) four guaranteed games from a decent contributor might be more useful than a few shaky outings from a bigger name — especially when you’re still fighting for a playoff seed. Several players including Joel Embiid, Jakob Poeltl, Markkanen, Kristaps Porzingis and Darius Garland have injury histories that will lead to season-ending absences.
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Every roster spot needs to justify itself
My framework for trading or cutting players is this: Look at each player and ask tough questions. Are they trending upward? Is the role guaranteed? Are they well-positioned to help you win over the next three weeks? Can their game actually launch? If you put them on the trade block today, would anyone really want them?
If the answer isn’t convincing, don’t wait for a clear answer that may not come. Trade while you still can. Just let go when the math tells you to and live with purpose. This is the final moment to change your strategy for a chance at a fantasy championship.
