Washington — Voters will head to the polls in Middle Tennessee on Tuesday for the final 2025 electoral showdown in what could be a referendum on President Trump.
Veteran and Republican candidate Matt Van Epps and Tennessee Rep. Aftyn Behn, a Democrat, are vying for the seat in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District to replace former Republican Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July. Since 2019, Greene has represented the district, which stretches from parts of Nashville to the state’s borders with Kentucky and Alabama and includes many rural counties. He won the most recent campaign by more than 20 points.
While the election is generally considered a safe victory for Republicans, polls show races in the Volunteer State that are closer than expected, with some contests in the single digits. Meanwhile, millions of dollars in outside spending have poured in, and top figures in both parties have thrown their support behind candidates in recent days.
Still, Democratic victories in deep red districts in Tennessee will be an uphill climb. But onlookers will be watching to see whether the race ends with a single-digit margin, a possible harbinger of next year’s election.
midterm election indicators
The results of Tuesday’s special election will almost certainly be viewed as an indicator of next year’s midterm elections as Democrats tout a string of recent victories.
Conventional political wisdom suggests that the party that controls the White House tends to lose midterm elections. The Tennessee special election comes after Democrats performed well in September’s special election. sweep The party pointed to this in a key contest in the November election as evidence of changing voter tides after the party suffered a heavy defeat in the 2024 election.
In last month’s races, Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Mickey Sherrill easily won the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, while in New York City, democratic socialist Zoran Mamdani won the mayoral race.
Given the dynamics in Tennessee, even a narrow loss in Tuesday’s special election will be seen as bolstering Democrats’ momentum heading into the midterm elections.
Special election with national attention
Tuesday’s special election drew national attention, millions of dollars in outside spending, and visits and phone calls from senior members of both parties who have flocked to the region in recent days to support candidates.
House Speaker Mike Johnson endorsed Van Epps in the district on Monday, casting the race as a contrast between Republicans “delivering on our promises” and Democrats imposing a “radical” agenda.
At one point, Johnson called a “friend” who turned out to be the president. “We have to win this seat,” Trump told the crowd.
“Let’s get a landslide victory. The world is watching Tennessee right now, and they’re watching your district,” Mr. Trump said. “This is a big vote, it has to show something, it has to show that the Republican Party is stronger than ever.”
Democrats including former Vice President Al Gore and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who represent Tennessee in Congress, spoke during a call-in rally for Bain on Monday. Gore said that in the November election, “bipartisan and independent voters overwhelmingly showed that they are tired of Trump’s madness and cruelty.”
“So it’s no surprise that the president is starting to panic about tomorrow’s election in Tennessee,” Gore said. “The stage is set and I do believe Tennesseans are determined to wrest back decency, self-respect and common sense from the most corrupt and dangerous president in American history.”
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