By Omkar Godbole (All times Eastern unless otherwise noted)
Cryptocurrency markets rallied on Monday as expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve boosted risk appetite across the board. Bitcoin It rose to nearly $92,000, up 3% in the past 24 hours, while the CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 indexes rose 3.5%.
That said, bulls may want to proceed with caution as there are at least three yellow flags waving. First, this rate cut is essentially a foregone conclusion, so all eyes are on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s forward guidance and whether he will signal more rate cuts in 2026. Some market watchers are betting the Fed won’t pursue aggressive easing. Case in point: Ahead of the meeting, 10-year Treasury yields were climbing, suggesting bond traders were smelling hawkishness.
Momentum is also leaning bearish. The CoinDesk Bitcoin Trend Index is showing a strong downward trend, and the Ethereum equivalent is not far behind. These factors turned bearish in mid-November, setting the stage for the subsequent price slide.
Traffic doesn’t scream “buy” either. According to SoSoValue, the spot Bitcoin ETF listed in the United States last week had a net loss of US$87.77 million, and the spot Ethereum ETF had a net loss of US$65.59 million.
“The move is constructive below the surface, but markets are politically and macro-sensitive this week as big wallets continue to accumulate and exchange supply is at historically low levels,” said BRN research analyst Timothy Misir.
Misier added that a hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve, large ETF outflows or a reacceleration of foreign exchange inflows, as well as data that weakens rate cut bets, could all disrupt the situation.
Newsletter service LondonCryptoClub noted that volatility in the wider market should also be watched, as tokens for CONX, APT, STRK, CHEEL, LINEA and BB will be unlocked over the next seven days, with each token worth over $5 million.
In traditional markets, gold’s rally paused near $4,200 an ounce. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Market
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- cryptocurrency
- December 8: The EstateX (ESX) platform is launched for Unicorn Club members (requires 1M ESX) and NFT holders; the first property for sale.
- December 8 (open): ProCap Financial Inc. (BRR), formed from the merger of Columbus Circle Capital Corp. I and ProCap BTC, LLC, begins trading on the Nasdaq Global Market.
- December 8, 11:30 AM: Enjin (ENJ) activates the Senotsa upgrade on the Relaychain and Matrixchain mainnets.
- December 8, 1:30 pm: Hivemapper (HONEY) AMA on X Spaces.
- Macro
- income (Estimate based on FactSet data)
Token event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- December 8: A community call will be held at 11 a.m. to ask for an update on Mesa upgrades
- Celo Public Goods is voting on the December allocation of Support Stream Season 1, allocating CELOs and OPs to projects based on stCELO voting. Voting closes on December 8th.
- Aave DAO is voting to add the USDG stablecoin issued by Paxos to the Aave V3 Core instance. Voting closes on December 8th.
- Unlock
- Token issuance
- Stable (STABLE) lists of various exchanges including Bitfinex and KuCoin.
Meeting
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
market trend
- BTC is up 3.32% to $92,192.06 as of 4pm ET on Friday (24 hours: +3.27%)
- ETH up 4.63% to $3,160.68 (24 hours: +3.98%)
- CoinDesk 20 up 3.75% to 2,945.01 (24 hours: +3.59%)
- The comprehensive pledge rate of Ethereum CESR increased by 1 basis point to 2.85%
- The BTC financing interest rate on Binance is 0.0039% (annualized 4.242%)
- DXY unchanged at 98.95
- Gold futures fell 0.17% to $4,235.70
- Silver futures fell 0.29% to $58.88
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.18% at 50,581.94 points
- The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.23% to 25,765.36 points
- The FTSE was unchanged at 9,664.29
- The Euro Stoxx 50 index remained unchanged at 5,725.95
- The Dow closed up 0.22% on Friday at 47,954.99 points
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.19% at 6,870.40
- The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 0.31% at 23,578.13
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 0.53% at 31,311.41 points
- The S&P 40 Latin America Index closed down 3.98% at 3,126.05 points
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rate rose 1.2 basis points to 4.151%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.11% to 6,886.00
- E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2% to 25,784.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures unchanged at 47,991.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- Bitcoin dominance: 59.38% (-0.12%)
- Ethereum-Bitcoin ratio: 0.03434 (1.41%)
- Hash rate (seven-day moving average): 1,025 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $38.75
- Total fee: 1.99 BTC / $178,769
- CME Futures Open Interest: 121,060 BTC
- BTC in gold: 21.8 ounces.
- Bitcoin and gold market capitalization: 6.16%
technical analysis
- This chart shows the daily fluctuations in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield.
- Despite the impending Fed rate cut, benchmark yields continue to rise and form a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern.
- A breakout of the pattern’s resistance line (yellow) could accelerate the uptrend, potentially increasing volatility in both traditional and digital asset markets.
crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Friday’s pre-market close at $269.73 (-1.58%), up 2.11% to $275.42
- Circle (CRCL): Closed at $85.62 (-2.1%), +0.15% at $130.04
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $25.51 (-7.47%), +1.92% at $26
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $46.45 (-4.07%), +1.42% at $47.11
- MARA Holdings (MARA): Closed at $12.47 (+4.7%), +2.56% at $12.04
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $14.94 (-4.17%), +2.01% at $15.24
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $17.11 (+0.18%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $13.72 (-8.75%), +2.59% at $14.07
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miner ETF (WGMI): Closed at $45.53 (-3.72%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): Closed at $14.61 (-5.25%), +2.94% Closed at $15.04
Cryptocurrency Treasury Corporation
- Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $178.99 (-3.77%), +2.23% at $182.98
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed at $17.11 (+0.18%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): Closed at $10.72 (-3.94%), +3.26% at $11.07
- Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $2.66 (-6.67%), +2.63% at $2.73
- Lite Strategy (LITS: Closed at $1.67 (-4.57%)
ETF flows
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net traffic: $54.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $57.6 billion
- Total BTC holdings are approximately 1.31 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily Net Traffic: -$75.2M
- Cumulative net flows: $12.9 billion
- The total amount of ETH held is about 6.25 million
Source: Farside Investors