For nearly his entire tenure as the Padres’ president of baseball operations, AJ Preller has ensured that San Diego remains one of the MLB’s most active teams when it comes to transactions, whether that means making major moves at the trade deadline or aggressively adding free agents.
But as the Padres continue to enter an era of new leadership above Preller after the death of Padres owner Peter Seidler — an ambitious steward willing to spend generously — San Diego appears to have become much less comfortable with spending money in the past year. That means Preller is now tasked with creating a competitive roster around the massive existing contracts, rather than taking the payroll to new heights.
advertise
This dynamic makes the Padres a particularly interesting team to watch as offseason activity ramps up. San Diego was coming off its second straight playoff berth and was still in the hunt for its first World Series title, but the team also desperately needed to address some sizable holes on the roster — and there wasn’t a lot of financial flexibility.
There’s still a lot of work to be done, and given the current circumstances, this may be Preller’s toughest assignment yet. While he didn’t make a major move this offseason, rumors circulated during the Winter Meetings that the Padres could make another industry-shocking move, most likely in the form of a trade.
Here are the five biggest questions facing the Padres this offseason.
1. How much more rotation will they add?
With Dylan Cease and Michael King hitting free agency and Yu Darvish needing elbow surgery that will keep him out in 2026, there’s a lot of uncertainty about San Diego’s starting lineup. Nick Pivetta performed well in his first year with the Padres and will likely remain at or near the top of the rotation if he doesn’t get traded (more on that later), but becomes dangerous after that; San Diego currently ranks 28th in projected starting fWAR according to FanGraphs’ depth chart. A familiar face scheduled to return is Joe Musgrove, who missed all of 2025 after elbow surgery, but expecting him to immediately resume his role as the No. 2 starter is cause for optimism. Beyond that, enigmatic Randy Vasquez and lefty JP Sears line up behind Pivetta, both of whom have performed better as backfield options than unquestioned contender rotation members.
advertise
Heading into the winter, there was speculation that recently acquired reliever ace Mason Miller and fellow All-Star bullpen player Adrian Morejon would return to the starting lineup to help the team, but new head coach Craig Staman dismissed that idea when reported at the Winter Meetings:
“It’s a risky proposition from a health standpoint and a performance standpoint. I think using those guys strategically in the bullpen is probably best for us,” Staman said. Advertisement
[Get more San Diego news: Padres team feed]
Keeping Miller and Morejon in the later innings is a perfectly reasonable choice, but that doesn’t negate the need for rotation. Stamann also admitted:
advertise
“I think depth-wise, we’re definitely not where we want to be,” he said. “It’s definitely important for us to have more pitchers who are capable of starting. We also value the guys that we have right now…I’m not going to denigrate those guys at all and say we need better guys than them.”
Aside from re-signing left-handed pitcher Kyle Hart (5.86 ERA in 43 pitches) after returning from the KBO, the Padres have not added any pitchers who could be 2026 starting candidates. Such an addition is bound to happen in some way, but starting pitching is expensive, so it will be fascinating to see how Preller navigates this market on a tight budget.
2. Is another bullpen arm needed to help replace Robert Suarez as the closer, or are the internal options good enough?
If Miller and Morejon continue to be high-leverage options late in games, that’s good news for Stamen in his first trip managing a major league bullpen. But Suarez, who signed a three-year, $45 million deal this week to join the Atlanta bullpen, has been a staple of San Diego’s game-ending strategy in recent seasons, and his absence will be felt even if the acquisition of Miller and the emergence of Morejon leave Stamen with two quality candidates to fill the closer role.
advertise
It’s not just the two arms that should give Stammen confidence, as Jeremiah Estrada is a strikeout machine and homegrown right-handers David Morgan and Bradley Rodriguez look ready to take the next step after being expected to debut in 2025. Additionally, veteran lefty Wandy Peralta can still hit ground balls as well as anyone, and the Padres have signed two under-the-radar players in the majors that could bolster bullpen strength in Ty Adcock and Dyson Acosta.
Even without Suarez, the San Diego bullpen will be a formidable unit. But the reality is that any concern in this arena isn’t necessarily Suarez’s departure, but the weakening of the rotation. An elite bullpen can only be effective if the rotation can get the relievers ahead, which could be a challenge for San Diego given the current personnel. Of course, another way the Padres could improve their chances of taking a late lead is if they average more runs than the 4.33 points per game in 2025, which ranked 18th in MLB and 11th among 12 playoff teams. Which brings us to…
3. If adding pitching is a priority, could the Padres bring in bats?
While San Diego still projects to have plenty of star players on the roster, there’s no denying that the Padres’ running game in 2025 isn’t great. They ranked 28th with just 152 home runs, a minuscule number compared to other high-powered offensive teams that qualified for the postseason. A healthier Jackson Merrill should help next season, and Fernando Tatis Jr. (25 HR) and Manny Machado (27 HR) are still excellent players, but the roster will soon decline after this excellent trio, especially with the expected departure of Luis Arraez and the deadline acquisition of free agent Ryan O’Hearn. Alas didn’t contribute much to San Diego’s 2025 slugging effort and was overall disappointing relative to his career standards, but he was still a standout in the lineup and a contact specialist who made opposing pitchers work.
advertise
Without Arazzi and O’Hern, there are also glaring holes at first base and designated hitter, positions that have traditionally been considered the foundation of a sustained offense. One of those spots could be filled by Gavin Sheets, who is a decent find considering the minimal acquisition cost, but his production fluctuates wildly, with big production in May and August making up for poor performances in July and September. Even if the Sheets are good, that’s just one guy; there’s no obvious internal candidate who’s guaranteed to be the first at-bat or DH every day. (Tirso Ornelas and Will Wagner: Prove me wrong.)
All of which is to say: San Diego may be right to focus on upgrades on the mound, but it’s a thin group of position players that still need to strengthen.
4. Will the Padres trade rookies or trade from their major league roster?
One of Preller’s most notable attributes during his time leading San Diego’s front office was his ability to create the package of prospects necessary to attract major league talent in trades, even though such trades often depleted his farm system. We often wonder at the trade deadline and offseason how the Padres can come up with enough tantalizing minor league talent to land a big fish on the trade market, but time and time again, that’s exactly what happens.
advertise
A lot of that is down to the club’s ability to consistently draft and develop players that are valued league-wide, but even so, it’s clear that the depth of deals is significantly diminished as things stand, especially after another round of trades in July. Top catching prospect Ethan Salas’s value has plummeted after a few lackluster and injury-plagued seasons, and while the lower levels have some exciting pitchers like Kruz Schoolcraft and Kash Mayfield, it’s hard to imagine San Diego winning a bidding war for young talent in exchange for MacKenzie Gore or Edward Cabrera. Cabrera and other high-end players.
Maybe that assumption will soon be proven wrong, but based on reports and a tight budget, the more likely scenario is that San Diego is trying to lighten the payroll burden by swapping a mix of well-paid major league players for younger, cheaper players who can help right away. The challenge is that some of these contracts are more onerous than others, meaning Preller may need to attach prospects to offset the costs in some cases — if he can find a trading partner willing to accept such a contract.
With Xander Bogaerts’ massive deal likely untradeable and a Tatis deal simply unthinkable, Pivetta (owed $51 million over the next three seasons) and infielder Jake Cronenworth (owed $60 million over the next five seasons) are the smartest candidates with contracts on the books. That said, trading Pivetta while trying to bolster the rotation is a tricky proposition — one that exemplifies the uncomfortable dilemma Preller may be trying to cross this winter.
5. Will we have a clearer idea of ownership direction before Opening Day?
All of these references to salary and a tight budget are a sobering shift from how the Padres have operated under Peter Seidler, but as things unfold, it’s a crucial reality not just for this winter’s roster, but for the team’s big-picture future. In November, John Seidler, Peter’s brother and the team’s current president, announced his family’s intention to explore “strategic options” for the Padres, including the possibility of selling the team. This could be a huge development that could completely change the direction and landscape of baseball in San Diego.
advertise
That process could result in the Seidler family retaining majority ownership of the Padres and continuing their newly cautious approach. Or maybe there’s a new ownership group on the horizon that’s eager to invest in a team with a fan base that will pack their picturesque stadium whenever the team has reason to. Add in the tantalizing pursuit of a first championship, and it’s not hard to imagine the right wealthy individual (or group of individuals) getting excited about the possibility of owning the Padres. That said, their market size and unusually large proportion of long-term contracts already on the books could be a barrier to attracting potential investors.
While we’re still in the early stages of this process, how it unfolds may be far more important than how Preller addresses the rotation or who is the starting DH on Opening Day. Whether we get clarity on the above process in the coming months in a way that changes the club’s offseason strategy remains to be seen, but either way, it’s important to keep this storyline in mind when discussing anything involving the Padres moving forward.
