Throughout the season, we’re using FTN’s new NBA StatsHub to help separate superficial numbers from real impact. These advanced metrics provide the necessary context to effectively identify emerging stars, analyze trades, gain insight into award contentions and provide analysis of the league’s top playoff contenders.
Now, as the regular season enters its final stretch, the focus turns to determining which stars are peaking at the right time. Using NBA StatsHub, let’s take a look at a few players who have been playing at a high level since the All-Star break.
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Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets
In the coming days, Kevin Durant will surpass Michael Jordan and move into fifth place on the NBA’s all-time scoring list. However, the 37-year-old Durant suffered a torn Achilles in his prime, and his Hall of Fame resume is about more than just padding numbers.
Since the All-Star break, he’s averaging 25.9 points on 17.5 shots per game. He is the only player in the league who averages more than 25 points per game, shoots more than 50% from the field, more than 40% from three-point range, and more than 90% from the free throw line.
He leads the league in points over expected (+5.5) by a wide margin during that stretch, with Luka Doncic (+4.1) and Anthony Edwards (+3.8) ranking second and third, respectively, a wide margin away.
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Con Knuupel, Charlotte Hornets
Earlier this season, we used field goal percentage to beat expectations to examine the league’s most underrated scorers, and ended up wondering if Con Knupper would become the NBA’s next superstar.
Since then, he has averaged 19.7 points per game and shot 49.3% from the field, including 44.0% from three-point range. Since the All-Star break, he ranks sixth in the entire NBA in points-over-expected points. He was Charlotte’s most valuable player during that stretch, with an incredible net rating of +22.4.
When we reported on February 18 that Knuupel had become the NBA’s most impactful first-year player, he had already surpassed 500 points in the Rookie of the Year race. A month later, he was -200 to win the award, making him the clear favorite if he could stay healthy through the final month of the regular season.
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James Harden, Cleveland Cavaliers
Immediately after the Cavaliers traded James Harden, ESPN gave Cleveland a B grade on the deal. CBS Sports gave Cleveland a C. Bleacher Report was the most critical, giving the Cavaliers a D+.
We gave the trade to Cleveland an A+, believing Harden is still a high-impact player.
Since the trade, the Cavaliers have ranked second in the league in offensive efficiency despite both Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen missing significant time due to injuries.
A big reason for their success is the play of Harden, who ranks seventh in the league in points over expected since the All-Star break. The team has a net rating of +4.7 when he’s on the floor, a result of his playmaking, efficient scoring and veteran leadership.
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The Cavaliers have emerged as a major threat to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference. If healthy, they have the best chance of returning to the NBA Finals since LeBron James left the Lakers nearly a decade ago.
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Kevin Durant, Con Knuupel, and James Harden don’t just fill up the stat sheet every night because they take a lot of shots or play high-usage roles on their respective teams. These players bring measurable and sustainable benefits to the club during the most important moments of the season.
