On Thursday, I focused solely on hitters in an article about players with positive or negative regression. Today I’m going to turn my attention to pitching as we look at the points in the draft where drafters can make better decisions.
[Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season]
Don’t draft Jacob deGrom (ADP 56.8); draft Kyle Braddish (ADP 80.9)
DeGrom has started just 35 games in four seasons from 2021-24, but he exceeded expectations last year by posting a stellar ERA (2.97 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) in 30 games. The 37-year-old should once again perform well in every start, but there are plenty of reasons to worry about his durability given his age and lengthy injury history.
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Bradish has similar durability concerns as he is entering his first full season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2024. But Bradish excelled in six starts last year and has recorded deGrom-like rates (2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) in 44 starts over the past three seasons. I’m happy to wait two rounds and draft someone with similar risk-reward characteristics.
Don’t draft Tyler Glasnow (ADP 108.6); Draft Chase Burns (ADP 123.6)
Anyone who believes they will get more than 25 starts from Glasnow is welcome to join one of my leagues and draft him. After all, in 10 seasons in the major leagues, the right-hander has yet to accomplish the feat. Glasnow’s career-high 134 innings starting in 2024 should be viewed as his ceiling, especially since he’s working for a Dodgers organization that’s more concerned with October availability than regular season dominance. Glasnow should be good in 110-135 innings, but he no longer matches the strikeout rate of his prime, and he can’t match the swing-and-miss skills of Burns, who struck out at a ridiculous 35.6% rate in his rookie year. Managers would get similar results by bypassing Glasnow and waiting a few rounds to draft Burns.
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Don’t draft Robbie Ray (ADP 155.8); draft Jack Flaherty (ADP 171)
I don’t have a good feeling about Ray this year. Of course, he also got a strikeout. But he can destroy a fantasy team’s WHIP (career 1.29), and he struggled after the 2025 All-Star break, when he posted a 5.54 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 12 starts.
At worst, Flaherty will be like Ray. But I think the Tigers’ right-hander will have better results as he encountered some bad luck last season and is just two years away from the 2024 season in which he posted an impressive 3.17 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Add in the fact that Flaherty was drafted later than Ray, and the choice becomes obvious.
Don’t draft Spencer Steed (ADP 128.9); draft Mackenzie Gore (ADP 149.7)
Strider doesn’t look like himself last season. His velocity dropped off dramatically, resulting in a K-BB ratio of just 14.8%. To put things into perspective, the right-hander has a K-BB ratio of 29.7% in 2022 and 29.2% in 2023. He hasn’t lit up the radar gun yet in spring training, so there’s no reason to expect a major shift.
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Instead, after years of teasing fantasy managers in dominant fashion, Gore finally has something going in his favor. The left-hander will get a major upgrade in his home field and on the team’s defense in a trade from Washington to Texas. The 27-year-old has been able to strike out batters and should now combine his strikeout contributions with a solid rate.
Don’t draft Merrill Kelly (ADP 206.8); draft Joey Cantillo (ADP 206.7)
The decision to avoid Kelly had nothing to do with his minor back injury. The 37-year-old has recovered from the disease and should be ready for the first rotation or a trip soon thereafter. Instead, this pick is based on Kelly’s mid-level ceiling. He has great value in deeper formats, but in a standard Yahoo setup, managers should be chasing late-round options who might have special seasons rather than aging starters with career 3.77 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.1 K/9 ratios.
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Cantillo has the more interesting upside, as he struck out 72 batters in 67 innings as a starter last season and posted a 2.96 ERA. If Cantillo struggles to succeed in 2025, there are always plenty of solid options on the Yahoo waiver wire that Cantillo’s manager could turn to. Other late-round options with Cantillo-esque upside include Andrew Painter, Mike Burrows and Ryan Weathers.
Don’t draft Robert Suarez (ADP 186.1); draft Riley O’Brien (ADP 210.5)
I could have shortened this sentence to “Don’t draft Roberto Suarez” unless your league tally remains the same. Suarez is certainly capable of a ninth-inning game, but that’s not the role he started the season in. Warriors closer Russell Iglesias is good enough to keep his job, which means Suarez should be on the waiver wire in almost every league. I’d rather spend my last pick on someone who could potentially open the season as a closer, like O’Brien, Brewers reliever Abner Uribe or Rays righty Griffin Jaquez. All of these pitchers have advantages that Suarez cannot match.
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Don’t draft Mason Miller (ADP 49.3); draft Cade Smith (ADP 78.4)
I’d rather take Miller than Smith, but not when the difference is three rounds in my draft. Smith is slightly younger than Miller and has slightly better career rates in similar innings. Both pitchers have similar strike zone dominance, and they play on teams with similar projected win totals. Instead of pairing Miller with a No. 2 starter like Nick Pivetta, draft picks could pair Smith with an ace like Cole Ragans.
