Game Notes
-
Time and date: Saturday, December 27, 5:45 p.m. ET
-
Place: University Stadium—Albuquerque, New Mexico
-
spread: North Texas (-3.5)
-
Full time series: San Diego State leads 6-1
-
Last meeting: San Diego State 30, North Texas State 12 — September 20, 1975
-
Current winning streak: San Diego State, 1 (1975)
-
North Texas Last Bowl: 2024 First Responder Bowl, lost to Texas State 30-28
-
San Diego State final bowl: 2022 Hawaii Bowl, lost to Middle Tennessee State 25-23
-
2024 New Mexico Bowl: TCU 34, Louisiana 3
Set the scene
The New Mexico Bowl features a clash of styles battle involving two of college football’s most improved teams.
North Texas (11-2, 7-1) is aiming for its winningest season in history with its No. 1 scoring offense, while San Diego State (9-3, 6-2 Mountain West) offers its best comeback with the nation’s No. 4 defense. Team USA and its Mountain West rival meet for the first time in 50 years and come to New Mexico this year with 20 wins.
advertise
Does it depend on offense or defense to win championships? Only one style will prevail among the beautiful mountains on Saturday night under a fiery Albuquerque sunset.
North Texas Average Green Outlook
The dream season is coming to an end in North Texas. In 2025, the Mean Green set a new program record with 11 wins, earning a berth in the Conference USA Championship and falling just one win shy of the College Football Playoff. Success came at a price, however, and head coach Eric Morris left for Oklahoma State. While Morris’ original intention is to coach the New Mexico Bowl team, special teams coordinator and tight ends coach Drew Swoboda will take over on an interim basis until the transition to the Neal Brown era in 2026.
advertise
Transfer portal rumors involve some of North Texas’ star players, but the Mean Green is expected to field a full roster in Albuquerque. One of those stars is Drew Mestemaker, America’s Offensive Player of the Year. The quarterback currently leads the FBS with 4,129 passing yards, 448 yards ahead of the second-place finisher. Mestemaker has already set the North Texas single-season record for passing yards and touchdowns with 31 and is two games shy of tying Austin Orne’s 2022 record and three games shy of tying it. The star quarterback has remained extremely efficient during his breakout season, throwing no interceptions in 10 of his 13 starts and completing 70.2 percent of his attempts.
Another star freshman who defines North Texas’ No. 1 scoring offense (44.8 points per game) and total offense (504 yards per game) is running back Caleb Hawkins. Hawkins led the FBS with 23 rushing touchdowns, rushed for 1,236 yards and averaged 6.2 yards per game in arguably the most impressive true freshman season in the FBS. However, he exited the U.S. Championship game due to injury, and if not fully recovered, Kiefer Sibley will likely be the lead defensive back against San Diego State.
North Texas passes the ball very well both on the ground and through the air, and the Mean Green has a host of talented receivers leading an offense through the air that’s throwing for 323 yards per game. Wyatt Young has an FBS-best 295 yards in a single game this year and leads the team with 1,209 yards and 10 touchdowns, but Cameron Dorner and Miles Coleman are excellent secondary options, combining for 96 catches, while Landon Sides and tight end Tre Williams Williams) also topped the group. Despite Young’s statistical lead, Mestemaker doesn’t force it; instead, he takes what the defense allows and makes any North Texas receiver a threat on a given day.
Defensively, the Mean Green ranks 70th in points allowed, but that’s a huge improvement from the North Texas teams of the past few years. Missed tackles are rare on this team and takeaways are common, giving the Mean Green the fuel it needs to go from a sub-.500 caliber team to a near-CFP team. Only five FBS teams currently have more takeaways than North Texas’ 25 teams, and they’re evenly matched — 13 interceptions and 12 fumble receptions.
advertise
Ethan Wesloski and Trey Fields are the top tacklers in this opportunistic defense with 104 and 100 tackles, respectively, and they have a combined 15.5 tackles for loss. Other all-league selections in this group include cornerback David Fisher and strong safety Will Jones II, who rank ninth in the country in pass defense (163 yards allowed per game, 56.8 completion percentage). Fisher had a team-best seven deflections, while Jones was one of four defensive backs with multiple interceptions on a team that relies heavily on turnovers.
San Diego State Aztecs Prospects
San Diego State has tripled its win total since 2024, taking a major leap forward under second-year head coach Sean Lewis, who is undergoing a similar rebuild at Kent State. The Aztecs were tied at 4 heading into the Mountain West tournament, but computer ranking tiebreakers favored Boise State and the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, causing them to narrowly miss out on their first conference title since 2016.
advertise
San Diego State’s nine wins have been largely through relentless defense. The Aztecs rank fourth in the FBS in scoring defense (12.6 points per game), sixth in total defense (267 yards per game), 20th in run defense and fourth in pass defense — and they excel in every aspect as an elite unit. San Diego State produced three shutouts (counting 7-win Cal and 8-win Fresno State as victims) and limited seven of its 12 opponents to seven points or less. The team, which is 1-3 this season after allowing more than 10 points, will be the team’s biggest offensive test yet – facing the best offense in the FBS.
The Aztecs have an elite pass rusher in Trey White, who leads the team with 7.0 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss. The 6-foot-2, 255-pound two-time first-team All-Mountain West player could still enter the NFL after this game despite still being a redshirt sophomore. As White gets a lot of attention, so does other edge rushers like Niles King and Ryan Henderson, who combined for 13.5 sacks and 19.0 tackles for loss among one of the best defensive ends in the country.
Another first-team All-Mountain West selection was outside linebacker Owen Chambliss, who was a versatile force with 106 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss and five pass deflections. Chambliss has 13 tackles in three different games this year, and his defensive instincts are one of the reasons the Aztecs have held the team to a low 53.3% success rate. Leading the pass defense is star cornerback Chris Johnson. However, Johnson’s playing time is uncertain due to a foot injury, but if he does play, he will play a major role in locking down North Texas’ dominance in the air this year with four picks and nine pass breakups.
San Diego State’s offense doesn’t draw much attention as it ranks 90th in scoring offense (24.7 points per game). But Lewis, a master of the up-tempo RPO-based offense, led the program to its best scoring season since a 12-2 season in 2021. San Diego State enters the New Mexico Bowl without starting quarterback Jayden Denegal, who underwent shoulder surgery in December to advance his recovery into 2026.
advertise
Without Denegal, Central Michigan transfer Burt Emanuel Jr. will get the starting nod. Emanuel threw just nine passes in his first year as an Aztec, but the quarterback is better known for his rushing ability. At Central Michigan in 2022, he rushed for 293 yards and three touchdowns in a single game, proving his mobility. San Diego State is expected to be solid, with Emanuel running frequent zone reads alongside star running back Lucky Sutton, who ranks 13th nationally with 1,237 rushing yards.
San Diego State probably won’t throw much beyond third-and-3, and top receiver Jordan Napier is another reason why. As such, Donovan Brown (30 catches, 475 yards) was the only receiving option with over 160 yards this season on Saturday.
prophecy
Elite offense and elite defense. Which one to give? San Diego State’s offense — especially against QB1 Jayden Dengal and WR1 Jordan Napier — has to work really hard to keep up with North Texas’ multi-faceted offense that excels in multiple areas. The Aztecs may offer as much counter-attacking prowess as Mean Green has seen all season, but can the offense play good complementary football and win the field position battle?
advertise
That’s going to be difficult, especially given North Texas’ trends in revenue generation. Add in the three-headed monster of Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins (if he plays), and Wyatt Young, and Mean Green will likely leave Albuquerque with a dominant win.
Prediction: North Texas 35, San Diego State 13
