There are still five weeks left in the NBA regular season, and the race for the Eastern Conference playoffs is heating up. Jayson Tatum’s return to the Celtics after 10 months out with an Achilles injury has changed the team’s game.
Meanwhile, the Eastern Conference-leading Pistons are currently suffering a four-game losing streak. Additionally, several teams at the bottom of the standings are starting to look like playoff threats. Let’s take a look.
What’s your biggest (early) takeaway from Tatum’s return?
Dan Devine: It’s a great reminder that Tatum does a lot of things well, and how much the Celtics don’t need him to be able to do it all all the time. At least not yet.
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Tatum missed his first six shots against Dallas and missed nine of his last 11 shots against Cleveland; he made just 8 of 26 shots from outside the paint. That didn’t cut into his minutes, though, as he was still hitting the boards and using his size on defense. Still draws defensive attention, reads coverages quickly and moves the ball. The shot was hit and miss, but he looked incredibly sharp the rest of the game. When he can’t score, Jaylen Brown, Peyton Pritchard and Derrick White can take on the scoring duties. And when he Do Here we go…well, be careful.
Morten Stieg Janssen: Very very impressed. I’ve been saying for a while that even if Boston gets a 70% version of him, it’s a major upgrade, and honestly, that number is aiming high. Yet here we are, and he looks like an all-around star. Let’s ignore the shooting percentage for now and focus on how he gives the Celtics what they need.
Kelly Iko: The Celtics have essentially been a top-five defensive team all season long, but is it possible that, between his offensive prowess and his extended absence, we actually forgot just how influential Tatum was in this area?
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Let’s give up Friday’s game against Dallas, his first game against a tanking force in nearly a year. Tatum spent a large portion of Sunday’s 27 minutes guarding Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, holding them to a combined 1-for-7 shooting from the field. When healthy, Tatum has been an active defensive player for Boston, combining his excellent timing, length and underrated physicality. Offensive consistency will come with more games, but Tatum’s ability to fit in without causing too much disruption should be a red flag for the rest of the East.
On a scale of 1-10, how worried should the Pistons be about their four-game skid?
Iko: I would give it 5 points. We can’t just throw away a few months of great basketball and focus on a four-game slide, but we’re heading into mid-March and the real contenders are starting to stand out from the crowd. (Hello, San Antonio!) Detroit’s performance since halftime has also been unspectacular, with the offense ranking 16th in the league and the defense ranking 13th during that span.
I’d give players like Kevin Huerter more time to find a rhythm and role, while some of the easier upcoming opponents (Washington, Golden State, Memphis) should provide a palate cleanser. At this point, what we know about the Pistons is pretty clear.
Jason: 2. Generally speaking, looking at Detroit from a regular season perspective, I’m not nervous. The playoffs, however, are a different story, as the Pistons’ spacing issues remain very, very real. They shouldn’t worry about a four-game slump now, but should do everything in their power to avoid it in mid-April, because make no mistake: They’re not as infallible as their record suggests.
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Devine: I’d say 4, in honor of the length of the losing streak. Detroit has lost to three of the NBA’s hottest teams — the Cavaliers since the James Harden trade, the 60-win Spurs and the Heat, who have won eight of 10 games and own the league’s second-best point differential since the trade deadline — all on the road. Even the most embarrassing loss — a 23-point second-half lead that was blown 47-15 by the Nets — came without All-NBA selection Cade Cunningham and All-Defensive team threat Osar Thompson both out of the lineup. (But it’s still not good!)
The Pistons’ second-ranked defense will move, which should keep them in contention for the playoffs, and their stretch schedule is significantly more favorable than the second-seeded Celtics; public projection models still have them as the overwhelming favorite for the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed. One bad week isn’t going to ruin four and a half months of good time; however, it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on as Detroit ranked 22nd in halfcourt scoring efficiency over the past two weeks and now drops to 18th this season.
Outside of the Eastern Conference’s top four, who is the most dangerous team in the Eastern Conference?
Devine: Miami. I’d say the Hornets, who have been the second-best offense in the NBA since early December, but I’m worried we may have entered the “don’t sleep in Miami” part of the calendar. The Heat have a record of 8 wins and 2 losses in the past 10 games, defeating the Rockets, Hornets and Pistons respectively; ranking fourth in defensive efficiency throughout the season; and ranking fifth. attack efficiency since mid-January, and second Ever since Tyler Herro returned after the All-Star break. They still have questions to answer, but they’re just one game out of fifth place in the East; Bam Adebayo, Erik Spoelstra and enough offense could be a pretty dangerous combination if they can avoid the playoffs.
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Jason: Toronto. A plethora of offensive wings can bring surprises, and with the recent upgrade in Immanuel Quickley (19.3 points, 6.2 assists, 45.0 3 field goal percentage over the past 19 games), the dinosaurs are looking alive and kicking after being extinct for 66 million years. I still think they need more size to be a real threat, but the return of Colin Murray-Boyles should help.
Iko: Atlanta. Apologies to Luke Kornet, but I want to give the Eagles some love here. Sadly, we’ve only seen Jonathan Kuminga play three times for Atlanta since the trade, but consider this: The San Antonio Spurs have been the best team in the league since the All-Star break, with a point differential of +16.5. Guess who is second? The Hawks are right behind them at +15.1 points per 100 possessions.
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They play at breakneck speed, rank in the top 10 in three-pointers attempted and made, and CJ McCollum is known for his poise, veteran savvy and scoring. The final weeks of the season are going to be exciting — Atlanta has a relatively small remaining schedule, but so do Miami, Orlando and Philadelphia, teams that sit directly above the Hawks in the standings. Regardless, this has become the stuff of a nasty playoff game. Athleticism, efficient spread and crafty physical defense in spades. All apartments please.
What game would you like to see in the Eastern Conference playoffs?
Jason: Pistons-Cavaliers. I want to believe the Pistons, but I’m worried they don’t have enough firepower offensively to make a Finals push. It takes a lot of offensive execution to run through Cleveland, so I’ll be curious to see if they can do that while maintaining defensive intensity against Cleveland’s offense.
Devine: The Pistons faced the Hornets in the first round. Detroit was the plucky upstart last season, ending its playoff drought and giving their favored opponents everything they could handle in the first round. It’ll be interesting to see the roles reversed, with the Pistons now carrying real expectations and having to play a game of whack-a-mole against a fiery, overpowering Charlotte team — a framework in which the Pistons will have to fight their way through the play-in tournament to earn the right to compete for the No. 1 seed.
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Iko: I need to attend the Cavaliers/Pistons game and hopefully be in the second round. The off-court drama alone makes this game compelling, but Cleveland has some serious dark horse energy that — assuming Harden’s honeymoon extends for a few more weeks — is enough to pose a real threat in the Eastern Conference. Detroit’s brute strength and Cleveland’s skill are a natural fit.
