The Seahawks have run 1,132 offensive snaps this season.
They have defended 1,183 snaps.
Combined with 139 punts, 141 kickoff returns and 84 field goal attempts, that’s a total of more than 2,500 football snaps in 19 games.
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Only an obsessed lunatic or a despicable idiot would choose to sift through them all and believe they can determine which ones are most important to Seattle’s fourth trip to the Super Bowl.
Well, I’m a crazy person, and I’m an idiot, and I believe I can rank these using three extremely specific criteria:
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Expected bonus points (EPA). This is a stat that nerds prefer. It looks at how much a single play affects the likelihood of scoring, taking into account offense, distance, field position and time remaining.
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My (considerable) intuition
Without further ado, here’s my completely clear and unarguable countdown of the 10 most contributing games to Seattle’s fourth Super Bowl appearance:
Week 6: Jackson’s excitement in Jacksonville
Jaxon Smith-Ngiba took just eight seconds in the second quarter to outrun a cornerback and catch Sam Darnold’s pass in stride for a 61-yard touchdown, turning a three-point deficit into a four-point lead.
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It was one of two touchdown catches of more than 60 yards by Smith-Ngiba this season, proving that he can be just as dangerous on the outside as he was last season.
Smith-Ngiba leads the league with eight catches of 40 yards or more this season. No one else in the NFL has more than five.
Week 10: D. Law’s Long Arms
DeMarcus Lawrence’s fumble touchdown in the first half against the Cardinals was a big moment as the Seahawks started to hit their stride as a team.
Oh wait. That doesn’t really narrow it down.
Lawrence scored twice in the first half of the game in an eerily similar performance when a Seahawks pass rusher hit Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett mid-pass and handed Lawrence the ball, doubling his single-half touchdown total.
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Week 13: Your Biggest Ernest Effort
Minnesota fumbled the ball at the Seattle 13 with 5:09 left in the first half, giving the Seahawks a 3-0 lead. When Jordan Addison was tackled on third down, one yard short of what the Vikings needed on first down, they decided to go for it.
DeMarcus Lawrence wasn’t fooled by the play, and when he caught Max Brosmer, the Vikings rookie decided to throw the ball downfield because anything was better than a sack.
No.
Ernest Jones caught the pass in stride and ran 85 yards for a touchdown.
Week 4: 28 Second Exercise
The Seahawks led 17-6 entering the fourth quarter and limited the Cardinals to 147 yards of total offense. The Cardinals completed two of the game’s longest drives in the final quarter, scoring two touchdowns and tying the game with 28 seconds left.
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Due to a missed kickoff, the Seahawks got the ball at their 40. They had one timeout left, and after an incompletion on first down, Jaxon Smith-Njigba made a sideline catch so clever that the referees needed a replay to see him get both feet in bounds for a 22-yard gain.
Two plays later, Jason Myers kicked a 52-yard field goal to win the game 23-20.
Week 2: Total Cover-up
Three minutes into the fourth quarter against the Steelers, Jason Myers kicked a 54-yard field goal to give Seattle a 17-14 lead. His ensuing kickoff landed on the Pittsburgh 3, bounced and over the head of Caleb Johnson, who thought the ball was dead after it entered the end zone. That’s because Johnson is a rookie, and that’s what happens in college.
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In the NFL? It was a live ball and George Holani recovered it for a Seattle touchdown.
Divisional Round vs. 49ers: Sheed is needed
When the Seahawks traded two draft picks to acquire Rasheed Shaheed, one of the fastest receivers in the league, the expectation was that he would be a receiving threat downfield.
He did, as he did with his 51-yard reception in the NFC Championship Game.
But his biggest impact came on special teams, where he scored his third kick (or punt) return for a touchdown.
Week 18: Walker’s third-down magic
The game against the 49ers was still a one-point game at this point. A turnover on the first drive put Seattle at a disadvantage, and when Seattle threw the ball to Walker on third down with 17 yards needed, it looked like the Seahawks would indeed settle for a punt.
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Spoiler: they’re not.
Receiver Jake Bobo used a blocker and center Jalen Sundell stood up to clear space for the 49ers linebackers, allowing Walker to score first and leaving 49ers president John Lynch in agony as he watched from the suite.
It was one of five times this season that the Seahawks turned the ball over on third down when they needed 15 yards or more and ended up getting a first down. Walker completed three of those games, including a touchdown in Week 2 at Pittsburgh.
NFC Championship: Full coverage, no liability
As the Rams prepared to snap the ball and the Seahawks had nine defenders at the line of scrimmage, Rams coach Sean McVay ran toward the referee as if to call a timeout, but he delayed.
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Matthew Stafford mulled over his options before taking a late pass on rookie tight end Terrance Ferguson, who was blocked by Seattle cornerback Devin Witherspoon. Witherspoon protested to the referees that Ferguson should have been flagged for pass interference, which is hilarious because even if he was flagged for pass interference, Seattle would reject the penalty and take over the game when the offense failed.
After the game, McVay said one of Seattle’s linebackers must have had his job done because there were two players covering running back Kyren Williams.
“They were kind of lucky that two guys were right there stripping Karen,” McVeigh said. “I knew it couldn’t be part of their design. It was an accidental bust of theirs.”
McVeigh may have a point. Safety Julian Love was preparing to run past Williams, and when he turned to follow the running back, defensive end Demarcus Lawrence also fell into the area. However, this is the first time I’ve heard a coach point to an opponent’s defensive flaws to explain why his super-smart play doesn’t work.
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Week 16: Seattle returns
Statistically, the most important play of this exciting game against the Rams was either Smith Ngiba’s 4-yard touchdown catch in overtime or Dallas Soubert’s game-winning catch in the two-point conversion.
However…
I think Rasheed Shaheed’s punt return was the most important regular season play I’ve seen in the 20 years I’ve been hired to write and/or talk about Seahawks football.
Before that game, Seahawks fans were almost entirely convinced that Seattle needed a new quarterback after the previous possession ended with Darnold throwing his sixth (!!!) interception in seven quarters against the Rams.
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Shahid’s return gives Seattle the jolt it needs to be more than just a return.
If he hadn’t scored on the punt return, I don’t believe Seattle would have won that game.
If Seattle hadn’t won that game, the Seahawks wouldn’t have won the division.
Danny O’Neal was born in Oregon, the son of a lumberjack, but wise enough to attend college in Washington. He has covered Seattle sports for 20 years, written for two newspapers and a glossy magazine, and hosted a daily radio show on KIRO 710 AM for eight years. You can subscribe to his free newsletter and find his other work at dannyoneil.com.
