Led by Dan Hurley, UConn won back-to-back NCAA championships and posted a 21-1 record in non-conference play. Their only blemish was a 69-65 loss to Kansas in the finals on December 1, 2023. Even in that game, they led by five points with less than 10 minutes left and had a chance to tie the game in the final minute. Oh, and they don’t have the help of Stephen Castle, who is out with an injury. After last year’s slump, they entered the divisional round with just one loss and four losses without multiple starters. In that game — a 71-67 loss to Arizona State in November — they led and had the ball with less than two minutes left but couldn’t get the ball down the line. Since then, almost no one has put gloves on them. They left home, beating Illinois, Kansas and Florida State, and beating Texas and their wily coaching snake at home. They needed overtime to beat Providence and Villanova and somehow managed to beat Georgetown by just 2 points, but they currently sit atop the conference with a 21-1 record. Xavier…well, you know. They didn’t become a fireball this year. This team isn’t great per se, and their games often aren’t fun to watch, but they have shown a real tendency to be willing to fight hard in games where they should be dead and buried. There could be an alternate universe in which Gabriel Pozzato never gets hurt, Xavier beats Georgia, Marquette, Creighton and St. John’s instead of narrowly losing, and we’re looking at a potential championship team built from the ground up by Richard Pitino. But we are not. Instead, we’re looking at the most difficult game on the Muskies’ schedule.
Team fingerprint
This is the best defense in the league. They rank first in the Big East in EFG%, two-point field goal percentage, and three-point field goal percentage. You’re just not going to get a lot of good shots against these guys. They rank third in the Big East in forcing turnovers and fourth in defensive rebounding. This is backed up by ranking second in block rate and third in steal rate. As you might guess, this all comes at a cost, which is a defensive penalty rate that ranks 10th in the 11-team league. They’re a little susceptible to unfriendly whistles, but that’s clearly a trade-off Dan Hurley is willing to make.
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Their offense isn’t that strong, ranking second all time in AdjO’s Big East. It’s a balanced approach as they’re good at shooting both inside and outside the arc, ranking second in OReb%. They didn’t draw a ton of fouls, and they had legitimate turnover issues, but that certainly didn’t limit them. One-third of their shots come from beyond the arc, and their pace ranks 10th in the league. They are an experienced team with a good offense that can get a little out of control at times.
player
|
Start the game |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Silas Demary Jr. |
point guard |
All Wright |
|
primary |
class |
Sophomore year |
|
6’4″, 195 |
Measured value |
6’3″, 190 |
|
10.6/4.3/6.1 |
game line |
7.2/1.8/2.2 |
|
47.2/45.7/80.5 |
firing line |
46.7/45.8/79.2 |
|
This guy has everything you could want in a point guard. He ranks first in the league in assist rate and three-point shooting rate, second in ORtg, and ranks in the top ten in steal rate, true shooting percentage, free throw rate, and free throw percentage. He also doesn’t make too many mistakes. The only stat that affects his numbers is four fouls per 40 minutes. Brother, you can play |
||
|
Solo ball |
shooting guard |
Malik Messina-Moore |
|
primary |
class |
advanced |
|
6 feet 4 inches, 200 |
Measured value |
6 feet 5 inches, 200 |
|
14.6/3.7/1.5 |
game line |
10.8/2.7/3.9 |
|
41.2/29/84.6 |
firing line |
38.7/33.9/77 |
|
Ball was one of the most feared shooters in the league last year, shooting over 42% from three-point range. His shooting percentage has dropped off this year — though he’s improved from two games — but he’s still scoring at a high rate through field goal percentage and free throw shooting. His ORtg is still 115 this year, but he’s just pretty solid rather than amazing. |
||
|
Braylen Mullins |
small forward |
Trey Carroll |
|
newborn |
class |
advanced |
|
6’6″, 196 |
Measured value |
6’8″, 235 |
|
11.7/3.5/1.3 |
game line |
18.3/5.6/2.6 |
|
47.1/37.9/80 |
firing line |
50.8/34/66.3 |
|
Mullins missed the first six games of the season with an ankle injury but has been working his way back into form since then. His 5-for-10 shooting performance against Xavier wasn’t even his best shooting performance of the year, as he went 6-for-10 from 3-point range against Providence. He ranks ninth in the Big East in three-point field goal percentage and 10th in two-point field goal percentage. His defense is also solid. I hope he’s not Alex Karaban’s heir apparent. |
||
|
Alex Karaban |
power forward |
Philip Borovikanin |
|
advanced |
class |
advanced |
|
6’8″, 230 |
Measured value |
6’9″, 227 |
|
13.5/5.6/2.1 |
game line |
10/8/4.6 |
|
46.5/42/84.6 |
firing line |
44.7/31.9/87.5 |
|
Speaking of whom, here he is. What else is there to say about this man? He’s still the same guy he’s been since he showed up at UConn: a great shooter, a great defender, a great offensive rebounder. He can do that with low production and as a primary scorer; the only thing he doesn’t do is distribute well. Dan Hurley’s four years on the job are a testament to his powers of persuasion and/or depth on a zero-budget basis. |
||
|
Talis Reed Jr. |
center |
Jovan Milicevic |
|
advanced |
class |
Sophomore year |
|
6’11”, 265 |
Measured value |
6’10”, 241 |
|
14.1/7.8/2 |
game line |
11.6/3.9/1.4 |
|
63.2/0/57.1 |
firing line |
43.8/41.7/70.6 |
|
Reed can get into foul trouble and doesn’t have much range; that’s about all the holes in his game. He’s a monster on the boards on both ends and is an excellent defender in rim protection and passing lanes. He’s a very strong scorer in the paint and finds himself pretty consistent at the free throw line. He is an absolute star. |
reserves
They hover around the national average with 33.7% of their minutes coming off the bench, but they have four strong players who can give the starters a breather. Starting as a 7-foot-1, 260-pound freshman Eric Rebbe. He averaged 7.1/4.2/0.5 points per game, and as expected, he rebounded very well on both ends of the floor. He scores efficiently in the paint, has occasional range, and is excellent at the free throw line. behind him, wings Jaylin Stewart He’s basically been that person since he arrived on campus. Flexible defender, fouls a little too much, good rebounder, acceptable 3-point shooter with low usage rate (35% this year). He averaged 5.1/3.0/1.3 points per game and is a very reliable seventh man. his classmates Jaden Ross Basically a diet version of Stewart, everything was slightly worse on the way to averaging 4.3/2.3/0.6 per game. Malachi Smith He is a backup guard and an excellent backup point guard. He averaged 4.3/1.7/3.3 per game and had an assist rate of 30.8%. He’s a very good 3-point shooter, but terrible inside the arc, resulting in a somewhat ridiculous shooting percentage from the arc. 0.356/.484/.514.
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three questions
-What does Xavier think of this game? I’m not trying to be a negative Nancy, but objectively speaking, UConn is a better team than Xavier. Anyone who saw the Huskies go on a 27-4 run in the early portion of the Cintas game and effectively bury the game will back that up. The only team to beat UConn this year left a blueprint that included multiple all-conference caliber players sitting out the game. Providence shot 58% from 3-point range to force overtime, and Villanova forced five minutes of free basketball by crushing the offensive glass. That’s not the equipment Xavier has; Pitino and his staff need a master class to turn it into a game.
-How long will Allright have the starting role? It’s not that Wright did a lot wrong, it’s that he didn’t do a lot at all. He’s a very efficient player, but his usage rate is below 12% and his field goal percentage is below 10%. He’s basically just a ball retriever on offense. Walker’s energy was the difference in the outcome against DePaul. Perhaps that’s the skill best deployed off the bench, but Xavier needs to value every possession, and having Wright – a perfectly capable offensive player – play a passenger role is arguably not the best use of a starting role.
-Trey Carroll Running out of gas? After scoring 89 points in three games in mid-January, Carroll has had two consecutive games of considerable inefficiency. He still got his points, but it took him 31 FGA games to get to 43 points, and he’s turned the ball over nine times. Heavy on the legs, but he’ll need more help to repeat his second-half performance against Seton Hall.
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Three keys
-Put the ball in Big Phil’s hands. He was one of the few Muskies who played against UConn last time out, and he was very efficient, committing only 2 turnovers and shooting 14/11/6. He’s a strong and often smart point forward, which makes him a tough matchup even for a team as defensively skilled as UConn. Allowing All Wright to spend more time as a slasher or stand-up shooter might help him unlock something, and X will require everyone to work together to accomplish that. The best way is to let Borovikain take charge.
-Arrived on time. I know it’s simple, almost underwhelming, but if Xavier starts slow, UConn will ruthlessly run them off the field. There’s no wiggle room against such a good team, and Dan Hurley isn’t looking for handouts when he walks into the gym. There’s nothing more frustrating than realizing the game is over during the second media timeout. If they want to get this program back to where it should be, Xavier must be able to travel smoothly; avoiding missing games on the road against a dominant team would be a good start.
-Release Jovan Milicevic. He was so bad against UConn in the Cintas that he didn’t even have time to foul out. After seeing him go 2/3/1 with 2 turnovers in 20 minutes of play, Richard Pitino rested him for the rest of the night. When he’s good, he’s the rare player who can go head-to-head with Alex Calaban. For Xavier, a win from this game was crucial to making this game more than just a glorious win for the hosts.
