Why the UConn women’s basketball team won’t win the NCAA Tournament

Coach Geno Auriemma’s UConn Huskies have won 12 national championships, far more than any other program in women’s college basketball.

Entering the 2026 NCAA Tournament, the Huskies are undefeated, the No. 1 overall seed and an overwhelming betting favorite to defend the sport’s title.

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But being the No. 1 seed doesn’t guarantee UConn will win another championship. In fact, the top seed has won the NCAA Tournament three times since 2017: Baylor in 2019, South Carolina in 2022 and 2024.

Can UConn be beaten in March Madness? Can the deadly duo of Sarah Strong and Archie Forde be stopped?

Let’s take a closer look at how the Huskies might be deposed.

rebound

This is something Auriemma has been saying all year. Although the Huskies have the best frontcourt players in the country, they are not an elite rebounding team.

Among 363 Division I teams, UConn ranks 139th in total rebounds per game (37.4), 96th in defensive rebounding percentage (71.9%), and 204th in offensive rebounds per game (11.3). Now the argument against that last stat is that UConn doesn’t shoot that well — it leads the nation in field goal percentage — so the Huskies don’t have the opportunity to capitalize on their own shooting misses like other teams.

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But rebounding has always been a concern for Auriemma.

“You don’t need any talent to be an offensive rebounder,” Auriemma said after UConn’s win over Creighton on Feb. 11. “All you need is when the ball leaves someone’s hand, you automatically put yourself in a position to chase it…those guys that don’t go in, I want to do a better job of getting some of those back.”

Since 2010, all but four national champions have ranked in the top 30 nationally in rebounds per game in their championship year. Two of the outliers are Auriemma’s teams winning the title in 2016 and 2025.

3 point defense

On paper, UConn’s 3-point defense is pretty strong. The Huskies allow opponents to shoot 27.4% from three-point range, ranking 22nd in the country.

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However, UConn shot 38.9% from three-point range and its opponents shot 40.3% from three-point range, ranking last in the country. UConn has allowed 222 3-pointers this season, ranking 308th nationally.

The Huskies have hit double digits in three-point shooting five times this season. Notably, two of those games — against Michigan and Villanova at neutral sites — were the closest UConn has come to losing this season. The Huskies defeated the Wolverines by just three points, with Villanova leading UConn at halftime.

blueprint

Villanova may have revealed its blueprint for beating UConn when the Wildcats host the Huskies on Feb. 18. But honestly, a lot of it was based on luck, and UConn created its own problems.

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First, UConn got off to a slow start in that game, committing eight turnovers in the first quarter. Second, Strong got into foul trouble, picking up his third foul in the second quarter and his fourth early in the third quarter. Third, Villanova was hot on three-pointers, taking 11 shots from outside the three-point line. Fourth, the Wildcats were nearly even with the Huskies on the boards, trailing by just two rebounds.

So how did the Wildcats blow a five-point lead and end up losing by 14? Well, they turned the ball over 26 times and allowed UConn to turn those turnovers into 28 points. Strong also performed well in the fourth quarter, scoring 11 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assist without fouling.

It’s a similar story with Michigan State’s close calls. UConn didn’t start slow and Strong didn’t endure foul trouble, but the Wolverines hit 12 3-pointers and kept UConn close on the boards. Michigan’s turnovers included 14 turnovers and allowed the Huskies to score 18 fast break points. The Wolverines had a few fewer turnovers and maybe the outcome would have been different.

So what’s the blueprint for beating UConn? Shoot the 3-point shot, attack the glass and stop the Huskies offense, and don’t turn the ball over.

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Fingers crossed the Huskies get off to a slow start and Forde or Strong get into foul trouble early.

Easier said than done, right? But Villanova and Michigan State, to varying degrees, have come close to achieving that goal.

There are plenty of teams in the NCAA Tournament that are better than Villanova, and there are a handful that are better than Michigan. It’s March and crazy things aren’t uncommon.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why UConn won’t win back-to-back women’s NCAA tournaments