The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks were one of the most exciting teams in the 2025-26 college basketball season, starting 31-0 before falling to UMass, 87-83, in the MAC Tournament quarterfinals.
There was a lot of discussion about whether the Redhawks — a team that didn’t win four straight this season — deserved a spot in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, but the selection committee gave them a chance when they face SMU in Wednesday’s First Four game between two No. 11 seeds.
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Oddsmakers will favor Miami (Ohio).
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The betting public has been strongly in favor of the Redhawks so far, as they have the most bets of any NCAA Tournament team in early betting. As of Tuesday afternoon, 71% of bets and 63% of total bets at BetMGM Sportsbook were on Miami (Ohio) to cover the spread. The Redhawks opened as high as 8.5 points, but respected money later pushed the line down to the consensus 7 points.
“We opened with Miami (Ohio) at +8.5 and took a bunch of money out of Miami,” BetMGM college basketball trader Seamus Magee told Yahoo Sports. “Now that we’ve gone down to +6.5, we’re starting to see some people buy back into SMU at -6.5. Certainly there’s a lot of interest in Miami’s money line.”
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According to Magee, a whopping 81% of the moneyline bets in the game were on Miami (Ohio), which opened at +260 and had odds as high as +225. The RedHawks are BetMGM’s most-betted ML team in any NCAA tournament to date.
A similar situation is playing out in Las Vegas — a popular tourist destination and gathering place for tourists during March Madness.
“So far, both tickets and money, it’s been in Miami (Ohio),” noted Casey Degnon, director of risk at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “I don’t think that’s going to change. We started SMU at -8.5, went as high as -9 and are now down to -7. So far, we’re rooting for SMU to knock it out of the park.”
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As of now, most respected money and public bettors are on the same side, backing the Redhawks to make reinforcements — but that could certainly change if the team continues to move.
“We have some of the sharpest coverage on this ‘dog,'” said Chase Michaelson, college basketball trader for Circa Sports. “We have pretty good two-way action, but overall the stakes are down to 7. This is the kind of game that will generate sharp opinions because on one hand Miami faces competition like it’s never had this season, but SMU really limped into this position.”
Michaelson also noted that SMU will likely have B.J. Edwards, who has not played since an ankle injury on Feb. 25, return for this game and booked the same ticket. Michelson thinks a move to SMU could be possible on Wednesday night.
Either way, this will be one of the first big decisions sportsbooks make in the intense competition over the next few weeks.
