Bitcoin’s on-chain indicators are flashing their most constructive signals since early February, but underlying seller behavior and derivatives positioning suggest the path to new highs won’t be easy, Bitfinex said in an analyst note to CoinDesk on Thursday.
Long-term holders have increased their Bitcoin holdings by 300% to nearly 4 million tokens since late 2025, and they have begun making $180 million a day since BTC rallied to levels above $82,000 on May 11 before falling from $81,000 to below $79,000 on Thursday.
“This is a modest number compared to past cycles, suggesting that the current sell-off is contained,” they said. The problem, they explained, was daily realized losses, which they said averaged still at $479 million. “In calmer times, this number was closer to $200 million. On-chain recovery is not yet fully confirmed until losses fall into the $200 million range.”
gamma trap
Underpinning this cautious outlook are the “gamma traps” discovered in derivatives markets. Nearly $2 billion in gamma options short positions are concentrated around the $82,000 strike price, according to Glassnode data. Bitfinex said in the report that as Bitcoin traded within this area, market makers were forced to hedge their positions, initially amplifying volatility and potentially “squeezing” the price to $82,000.
AdLunam co-founder Jason Fernandes noted that this gamma concentration creates a deceptive environment. “Dealer hedging can accelerate price towards that level, but once the squeeze is exhausted, those same positions can dampen momentum and act as resistance,” Fernandez told CoinDesk. “In other words, gamma is currently amplifying the move but not necessarily validating it.”
Although on-chain data showed improvement, analysts said, “Corporate buyers have gone quiet in comparison. Major players bought very little Bitcoin last week, with purchases down 80% from the previous month.”
A big red flag is waving
Fernandez noted that the discrepancy between prices and institutional flows is a major red flag. Despite the recovery, the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded an outflow of $635 million on May 13, the largest single-day outflow since January.
Market analyst and Quantum Economics founder Marty Greenspan noted that the current “cost basis battleground” between $79,000 and $85,000 looks more like a transition zone than a ceiling.
Beyond technicals, the broader economic landscape remains an obstacle. On May 13, with the inflation rate rising by 3.8%, the U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Fernandez noted that the market is currently pricing in the reality that “prices continue to rise.”
“Kevin Warsh has set expectations that a rate cut is unlikely this year and that a rate hike is even possible,” Fernandez said. “Unless there is a fundamental change in geopolitics, I don’t think BTC will reach a new ATH this year.”
Given rising realized losses and a lack of corporate support, with buying volumes down 80% last week, Bitfinex analysts said they expect prices to quickly jump to the $82,000 to $84,000 range, followed by a “neutralization period.”
Fernandez concluded that the current structure looked like “incomplete capitulation.” The $85,000 level remains the primary “fair value battleground” for this cycle until the market is able to wipe out $479 million in daily realized losses and restore institutional belief.
