Where Will It Be in 1 Year

shares Palantir Technology (NASDAQ: PLTR) It rose 3.54% in the past five trading days, following a 1.59% rise in the previous five trading days. The stock is up more than 158% this year, with PLTR surging an eye-catching 2,010.11% since its October 2022 IPO.

When the company reported third-quarter earnings on Nov. 3, earnings per share were 21 cents, compared with expectations of 17 cents, and revenue was $1.18 billion, compared with expectations of $1.09 billion. Palantir issued strong guidance, attributing growth to adoption of its artificial intelligence software platform. At the same time, the company announced that government sales – crucial to Palantir’s rise – were up 52% ​​from the same period last year.

In September, the company reportedly agreed to a £1.5 billion defense deal with the UK. Previously, in early August, the U.S. Army announced that it would reach a 10-year, 75-contract worth $10 billion with Palantir. However, so-called smart money has recently sold off the stock, resulting in Palantir’s institutional holdings being only 56.44%. For example, JPMorgan Chase recently reduced its holdings in PLTR by more than 32%, while T. Rowe Price reduced its holdings by nearly 24%.

While the stock’s forward P/E ratio of 192.14 may be concerning, Palantir’s federal contracting and aerospace businesses are expected to continue to drive growth. Despite the poor earnings picture, emerging trends emerging from the company’s third-quarter results could set the stage for further shareholder returns.

However, PLTR’s market multiple means that, assuming earnings remain constant, it could take nearly half a century for investors to recoup their initial investment. But the company’s assumption, and that of Wall Street analysts, is that earnings will continue to grow. So despite concerns about its valuation, what can investors expect from Palantir next year? 24/7 Wall Street Did some analysis, so let’s take a look.

• Palantir’s government business accounts for more than half of its revenue, and the AI ​​company has existing contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Department of Agriculture, FBI, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), U.S. Army, and the British Ministry of Defense, among others.

• The company’s explosive commercial revenue growth demonstrates its ability to continue expanding without overreliance on federal contracts. It also serves a wide range of industries, including energy, data protection, health and life sciences, insurance, hospital operations, retail, semiconductors, telecommunications and utilities, among others.

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However, the AI ​​environment is ripe for development, and Palantir should play an important role in it. According to data from Grand View Research, the artificial intelligence market is expected to reach $1.811 trillion by the end of this decade, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.9% between 2025 and 2030. The global market size of artificial intelligence in 2024 is US$279.2 billion, which means that according to the forecast compound annual growth rate, the market will expand to US$379.4 billion by the end of 2025. Companies like Palantir that focus on a broad range of AI applications across different industries should capture the lion’s share of this growth.

Not only has the company achieved impressive growth, but it predicts sustainable momentum will help continue this pattern into the next year. High-profile contracts, such as the recently signed Army and ICE agreement and NATO’s adoption of artificial intelligence military systems, highlight its critical role in national security. President Trump’s emphasis on defense and government efficiency, exemplified by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, has positioned Palantir as a go-to artificial intelligence software provider, boosting investor confidence amid tariff-related market challenges.

Additionally, the company’s commercial business has grown significantly. Its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), launching in 2023, enables businesses in healthcare, finance and manufacturing to leverage AI for data analysis. Palantir’s focus on operational efficiency has improved profitability. Its software-as-a-service model features high-margin recurring revenue and supports scalability for government and commercial customers. The company was able to quickly deploy AIP and its number of customers increased 69% to 593, which enhanced revenue predictability. This profitability, coupled with a $3.9 billion cash hoard, fuels R&D and market expansion, bolstering investor optimism.

Palantir’s stock price has seen a rare exponential appreciation since its IPO. A large portion of this growth occurred between February 2023 and February 2025, during which time the stock reached its then-all-time high on February 18. PLTR has gained nearly 189% since hitting its year-to-date low on January 13.

However, most Wall Street analysts are cautious about the stock. The 16 analysts covering PLTR give it a unanimous “hold” rating, with 3 analysts giving it a “buy” rating, 11 analysts giving it a “hold” rating and two analysts giving it a “sell” rating. However, there are mixed opinions on price targets for the AI ​​darling, with the high-end price target at $255, the median price target at $187.87, and the low-end price target at $50.00.

Palantir has made several major announcements in the past few months, including its $10 billion Army deal, a $30 million contract with ICE to develop systems to aid deportations, and a partnership with TWG Global and xAI to bring artificial intelligence to the financial services industry. The news sent the stock higher in the short term. But as the broader market outlook remains cloudy, so does Palantir’s. This is reflected in the Wall Street consensus rating of “Hold.”

Palantir is calling for commercial revenue to grow at least 68% to $1.178 billion, with CEO Alex Karp saying, “We are providing the operating system for the modern enterprise in the age of AI.” While Palantir does face competition from large AI big data formats as well as smaller, fast-growing AI data analytics shops, the company is entrenched in government and large enterprises.

24/7 Wall StreetPalantir Technologies has a one-year price target of $168, which is more pessimistic and suggests a potential decline of 13.46% from the current stock price. These numbers are based on Palantir developing best-in-class AI software, but the falling cost of AI and the scaling of large language models have lowered the barriers to entry into decision-making software. We expect revenue growth to slow over time, climbing from $3.9 billion in 2025 to $11.9 billion in 2030, while normalized EPS growth will increase from $0.58 in 2025 to $1.44 in 2030.

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