The third and final star third baseman to jump from Japan’s NPB to MLB this offseason, Kazuma Okamoto, must agree to a deal with a major league club before his posting window closes on Sunday at 5 p.m. ET. Following the surprising results of slugger Munetaka Murakami signing with the White Sox and right-hander Ryuya Imai joining the Houston Astros, Okamoto’s pending decision represents the highly anticipated conclusion to a signing trilogy that has dominated hot topics in recent weeks.
Fair or not — the two are close friends, so viewing them as rivals is a bit misleading — without comparing Okamoto to Murakami, it’s difficult to assess Okamoto’s prospects for success in the MLB, given the timing of their moves to the MLB and their contrasting styles as hitters. Murakami’s swing-and-miss tendencies and less-than-impressive prospects as a backstop proved to limit his market more than we expected, leading him to sign a two-year deal with the rebuilding White Sox instead of a long-term mega-deal befitting a winning superstar. But Okamoto possesses well-above-average hitting skills and a significantly better chance of sticking at third base, giving the team more of a plug-and-play investment opportunity.
That’s not to say Okamoto won’t make adjustments. And since he’s approaching the age of a typical free agent — he turns 30 on June 30 — it’s hard to imagine him landing a multi-year deal approaching the nine-figure mark on his resume like domestic free agents do. Still, Okamoto’s combination of consistent excellence and advanced offensive prowess provides more optimism for immediate contribution at the major league level than Murakami could inspire.
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Okamoto may not have the impressive ceiling that Murakami displayed early in his career, when his jaw-dropping power earned him back-to-back Central League MVP awards and set the single-season home run record for a Japanese-born player in 2022 (56). But Okamoto is one of the most accomplished NPB hitters of his generation, and he’s no slouch when it comes to slugging: His 152 homers are second only to Murakami. (181) over the past five NPB seasons. Only three other hitters in the league had eclipsed 100 home runs during that span, a reminder of the NPB’s “dead ball” offensive environment, and Okamoto’s (and Murakami’s) ability to overcome that and produce unusually long-hit totals regardless.
Murakami possesses eye-popping exit speed, while Okamoto’s power output is the product of superior contact skills and excellent frequency-enhancing ability. His 11.3% strikeout rate and 90% zone contact rate in 2025 are both career bests, and his ground ball rate has been around 30, which would rank among MLB’s lowest if this trend continues.
Okamoto’s star power also comes from his time playing for the Yomiuri Giants, a popular Tokyo-based franchise that has the most Japan Series titles in NPB history. The status of a starring role on what is essentially an NPB Yankees team is high, and although, like the Yankees, it’s been a minute since the Yomiuri’s most recent championship (2012), Okamoto’s rise to one of the league’s most storied teams has greatly enhanced his star power.
Kazuma Okamoto represents the final in a trilogy of NPB stars and will jump to MLB this winter.
(Hayden Hodge/Yahoo Sports)
Okamoto’s reputation in Japan was further enhanced by his performance in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, where he hit .333/.556/.722 with seven runs batted in seven games, including home runs against Italy in the quarterfinals and the United States in the championship game. Three years ago, Okamoto batted sixth and hit first base in honor of Takashi Murakami, and Samurai coach Yuka Ibata has said Okamoto will serve as the hot corner and cleanup bat in upcoming games.
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Anticipated diamond flips are another factor that separates Okamoto from Murakami, who spent most of his NPB career at No. 3 and is expected to play No. 1 with Chicago (and Samurai). Okamoto is no Nolan Arenado, and he’s had some time in his career — notably, he injured his left elbow in his first start after colliding with a baserunner, causing him to miss much of the 2025 season — but most evaluators consider him viable at third base in the majors, at least for now. For potential suitors with a crowded infield, Okamoto might be further helped by some experience in the outfield, where he also had 68 starts at the Yomiuri Shimbun.
Overall, Okamoto provided a series of promising indicators that his game will translate to the major league level. But no matter how glossy the scouting reports and gaudy the statistics, the reality is that predicting a hitter’s ability to succeed when he comes from the NPB to the MLB is a much tougher task than a pitcher’s. That’s partly because, thanks to new-age pitching data and metrics, it’s become easier to evaluate a pitcher’s raw skill regardless of competition, but there’s also a much smaller sample of position players attempting the move, providing less comparable precedent.
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Imai just became the 53rd pitcher to sign with an NPB club since Hideo Nomo’s historic signing with the Dodgers in 1995. Okamoto would be the 20th hitter to do so since Ichiro Suzuki in 2001 (excluding Shohei Ohtani, of course, who occupies his own category). The success of this relatively small group of hitters ranged from Cooperstown icon Ichiro to a solid role player to a couple of forgettable cameos on the losing end.
Where Okamoto ultimately falls in that range remains to be seen, but in this emerging era of Japanese stars coming to the United States, his move to the major leagues becomes another fascinating and important storyline and data point.