Ethereum price entered March after suffering a brutal drop of nearly 20% in February. Starting in September 2025, ETH has been in the red for six consecutive months, which is unprecedented in the history of the coin. If a loss occurs in March, it will extend to seven months, further cementing the situation as Ethereum’s longest sustained decline in history.
While historically, ETH’s median return in March has been close to 9%, the current situation suggests that history may provide little guidance. Here’s what the data shows.
Even though there was a 32% decline in February 2025, there were immediate recovery attempts in the following months. This time, the selling has been relentless and the weekly chart explains why. Six consecutive months in the red, excluding March (which just formed), is not a simple bearish feat.
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Price History: CryptoRank
Ethereum price has been trading within a head and shoulders pattern since April 7, 2025. It is a bearish reversal structure in which a central peak (head) is flanked by two lower peaks (shoulders). The collapse was confirmed in early January 2026, and it was not a small drop. This is a structural breakthrough.
The move measured from this pattern is expected to be about 53% down from the fine line, with a target of around $1,320. Although it has not yet reached that level, the pattern is still active and unresolved.
To make matters worse, two additional bearish crossovers are forming on the weekly exponential moving average (EMA), which smooths the price data to highlight the trend direction.
The 50-period EMA is approaching the 100-period EMA, and the 20-period EMA is approaching the 200-period EMA. The last confirmed crossover – when the 20 EMA fell below the 50 EMA in early January – occurred before the 46% retracement.
Weekly Breakdown Structure: TradingView
If these new crossovers are confirmed, they will reinforce the bearish trend on the higher time frames.
Unlike Bitcoin spot ETF outflows, which have been steadily declining, the situation for the Ethereum ETF is worsening. Net outflows of $369.87 million were recorded in February, up from $353.20 million in January. That reversed an improving trend that briefly raised hopes when January’s outflows fell from $616.82 million in December.
That marked four consecutive months of outflows since November 2025, when $1.42 billion was outflowed. The last positive inflow month was October 2025, which was $569.92 million.
ETF Flow: SoSo Value
For Ethereum prices, this means that there is no bottom line for institutional demand entering March. Funds that once supported ETH through ETF channels are leaving, and unlike Bitcoin, the bleeding is not slowing down.
Against this bearish backdrop, one on-chain indicator stands out. Ethereum holders (wallets holding ETH for 155 days or more) have significantly increased their purchases. On February 21, hodler’s net position change indicator was a modest +6,829 ETH. By March 1, it surged to +252,142 ETH, a massive 3,500% gain that on the surface looked like a firm belief.
But context complicates the signal. The last major holder buying period began on December 26, 2025, when Ethereum was priced around $2,920. They continued to accumulate as the price climbed to $3,350 on January 14. Then the weekly EMA crossover was triggered and the price started to fall sharply. Holders continued to buy during the decline. Their net position did not turn negative until February 2, when the price dropped to $2,340.
ETH holders may be in trouble: Glassnode
As a result, many holders may be stuck between $2,340 and $3,350. The current surge in buying may not represent new bullish conviction but an attempt to average the decline and achieve breakeven. Retail investors should be cautious about blindly following this signal – the motivation behind buying may be survival rather than strategy.
If holders are trapped, why are they increasing their exposure in a weak market now? The 12-hour chart may give the answer.
Between February 12 and February 28, Ethereum price made lower lows, while the momentum oscillator Relative Strength Index (RSI) made higher lows. This creates a bullish divergence, indicating that selling momentum is waning even as prices fall. This divergence has triggered a rally, with Ethereum price up approximately 11.7% from the lows.
More importantly, this rally is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 12-hour chart; a bullish reversal structure. This is likely what holders are positioning for – a short-term breakout that could help them recoup losses from January’s trap. The technical setup is real and the RSI divergence has been confirmed by the initial bounce.
The neckline is around $2,160 to $2,180. If Ethereum price closes above this level, it is expected to rise by around 19% with a target of around $2,590. Before that, the Fibonacci extension levels of $2,050 and $2,400 will serve as intermediate resistance zones.
On the downside, a break below $1,830 would weaken the head and shoulders bottom pattern. With a close below $1,790, the rebound thesis completely fails and the weekly head and shoulders pattern once again takes over – bringing the $1,320 target back into focus.
Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView
The most likely path in March mirrors Bitcoin’s setup: a rebound attempt driven by the 12-hour structure and Hodler accumulation, followed by renewed pressure as the weekly trend remains firmly bearish.
The rebound is real, but it’s fighting a bigger collapse.
Read the original story “Ethereum Price Prediction: What to Expect from ETH in March 2026” by Ananda Banerjee on beincrypto.com
