The New England Patriots are tied for the best record in the NFL. However, they are not even favored at home this week.
Oddsmakers’ power rankings don’t always line up with public perception or a team’s record. The Buffalo Bills have a slim chance of winning the AFC East, but they are still the favorite to win the AFC Championship. The Bills have the lowest odds to win the division at +375. That confidence in the Bills is reflected in this week’s point spread.
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The Bills, who lost at home to the Patriots in Week 5 and are two games behind New England in the standings, enter Sunday’s BetMGM game against the Patriots as 1-point favorites. This is an interesting line.
The Patriots get some slights for having the easiest schedule in the NFL so far this season, but winning 10 games in a row is difficult regardless of the opponent. The Patriots did have good road wins in Buffalo and Tampa Bay. The Bills have Josh Allen, but they haven’t been great. They lost badly to the Falcons and Dolphins. They were in danger of losing to the Bengals at home last week until Christian Benford made a miraculous pick at No. 6 and turned the game around. You can find fault with New England’s season if you want, but you can do the same with the Bills. Most importantly, the Patriots are well rested after their bye week.
Maybe Josh Allen played a superhero role and kept the Bills’ chances at the AFC East title alive (the Patriots won the division on Sunday), but we’ll give the Patriots some respect for going with the +1 pick. It doesn’t seem like it’s going to be easy for this Patriots team to get the respect they deserve.
Derek Meyer and the New England Patriots defeated the Buffalo Bills in the teams’ first meeting of the season. (Photo by Katherine Riley/Getty Images)
(Catherine Riley via Getty Images)
Here are the rest of the NFL’s Week 15 picks, with odds from BetMGM:
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Buccaneers (-4.5) beat Falcons
It’s hard to root for any one team. The Buccaneers were beaten badly by the Saints and their offense was in a slump. More specifically, Baker Mayfield is in a slump. His rating in his last four games is 65.2. The Falcons, on the other hand, have lost seven of eight games, losing their last two games to the lowly Jets and Seahawks by 28 points. However, we must choose one of them.
Bengals (+2.5) beat Ravens
On Thanksgiving, the Bengals defeated the Ravens 32-14 in Baltimore. Not much has changed since then. The Ravens have shown week in and week out that they’re not very good. So why are they favored here? Theoretically, the Ravens could suddenly become the star team everyone thinks they are, but we’ve been waiting for months and it hasn’t happened yet.
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Giants (-2.5) over Commanders
Last week, the Commanders appeared to have one good performance left in the season, and two weeks ago they suffered a tough overtime loss to the Broncos. Last week’s performance against the Vikings was shockingly poor. They may have packed their bags and headed to Cancun. The Giants weren’t very good either, but they were rested after their bye.
Browns (+7.5) beat Bears
There will be situations this week where some teams are in forward position. It’s not common in the NFL, but how will the Bears face the Browns when they know the Packers will be in town in six days? The Browns have a good defense, and until the past few weeks, the theme of the Bears’ season has been a series of close wins, mostly over weak teams.
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Chargers (+4.5) ahead of Chiefs
Believe the only reason the Chiefs are able to score so many points is because they are in must-win mode. But they’ve been in must-win mode for weeks. It doesn’t matter. The Chiefs’ record isn’t as bad as their 6-7 record (they’re sixth in DVOA, haters), but the line seems a point or two higher. Would it be surprising to see the Chargers win outright?
Eagles (-11) beat Raiders
The Eagles look broken and the Raiders are the worst team in the NFL. How interesting. Geno Smith is unlikely to start for the Raiders this week, which might actually not be a bad thing. Still, I just can’t get enough of the walkthrough. If there’s a niche for the Eagles, it’s here. If they struggle here, they’re in real trouble.
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Jaguars (-12.5) over Jets
With Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor injured, Brady Cook will likely start for the Jets. Cook, an undrafted rookie, threw for 11 touchdowns in 12 games at Missouri last season. No matter who plays quarterback, the offense is not going to be very good. In this strange NFL season, anything seems possible, but this is a bad situation for the Jets.
Cardinals (+9.5) over Texans
The problem with taking down the Cardinals is that it’s hard to figure out how they can score against the best defense in the NFL. But it’s also not like the Texans’ offense is a treasure trove of points. We picked the Cardinals last week because most of their losses have been close. Didn’t make it last week. Let’s try again.
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Broncos (+2.5) beat Packers
The Broncos are certainly not without their flaws, but being 2.5 points behind at home? This is so surprising. This week, both teams have a record of 11 wins and 2 losses at home, which fully illustrates the openness of the NFL this season. Another factor in Denver’s favor: The Packers will play an almost NFC North championship game in Chicago in Week 16. If anyone was paying attention to that game, they shouldn’t be surprised.
Lions (+5.5) over Rams
This is a more extreme forward-looking point. Four days after this game, the Rams will play a game in Seattle that could determine the NFC West and top seed in the NFC. The Rams are a veteran team with a great coach, but how could they not be thinking about this game? Additionally, the Lions have extra time off after playing Thursday night, which is usually an advantage. Even if the Rams play well, the Lions have a good enough offense to cover the backdoor at any time. Be careful if you are bringing rams here.
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Panthers (-2.5) over Saints
The Panthers have had a very strange season, with a number of quality wins and some tough losses. One of those losses was to the Saints, and New Orleans soundly beat Carolina 17-7 in a game that wasn’t that close. How do we know which Panthers will show up? We hope to compete for the conference title at the end of the season.
Titans (+12.5) over 49ers
In fact, the Titans have covered the spread in four of their past five games. It’s not a good team, but it still plays hard. The 49ers should beat the Titans. But that’s not how the NFL usually works.
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Colts (+13.5) beat Seahawks
The Colts have eight wins, and it’s not just because of Daniel Jones. Despite the recent decline, this team is still a pretty good team this season. Yes, relying on a 44-year-old Philip Rivers, or anyone playing quarterback, against one of the NFL’s best defenses is scary. It can get ugly. But as is often said in this field, double-digit losers often look hopeless, and then they make up for it somehow.
Cowboys (-6) beat Vikings
It turns out the network needed a court order to air Cowboys games in prime time. It’s time to see if Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy is turning things around. He looked good last week, but the Commander’s defense was terrible. If he can get another shot on the road against a Cowboys defense that has gotten better since the Quinnen Williams trade, maybe the narrative around him will start to change. But let’s see it happen first.
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Steelers (-3.5) over Dolphins
This is a weird and fun game. The Dolphins started 1-6 but rallied and entered the playoffs with a 6-7 record. The Steelers may have some bad games, but they lead the AFC North at 7-6. This is a test for the Dolphins’ streak, considering they’ve been beating weak teams most of the time with Tua Tagovailoa doing very little.
last week: 6-8
Season so far: 106-98-6
