As the war with Iran enters its third week, and after the Trump administration arrested former leader Nicolás Maduro and pressed for a reopening of the country’s oil sector, a seemingly obvious solution to more energy problems is crude oil from Venezuela.
The obvious problem is that more oil from Venezuela or any other source around the world represents only a token drop in global supply compared to the huge daily losses in the Persian Gulf and Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“It’s a math question,” said Fernando Ferreira, director of geopolitical risk services at Rapidan Energy Group. “The flow of the Hormuz basin is about 20 million barrels [of oil] one day. Venezuela currently produces about 1 million [barrels daily]”.
The problem is that there is no choice but to effectively close the passage, through which about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes every day.
“Venezuela has helped; every little bit helps. But, in the long run, it doesn’t change the equation,” Ferreira told wealth. “There is no medium-term solution other than reopening the Channel. There is no other way to resolve the crisis.”
Francesco Monardi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said the best-case scenario for Venezuelan oil production is to see Venezuelan oil production grow to about 1.2 million barrels per day by the end of 2026, up from nearly 1 million barrels per day at the end of last year.
“If anything, I don’t expect the increase for the full year to be more than 250,000 barrels. For a country that produces only 1 million barrels, this is certainly significant, but it means nothing for the world market. Considering that the world consumes about 103 million barrels of oil per day, this increase is less than 0.3%.” Monardi said. “Especially, it’s very trivial compared to the chaotic market.”
The White House, meanwhile, aims to build a coalition of allies to control the strait and escort tankers. The United States has also temporarily lifted sanctions on some Russian oil, but this will only affect destinations and prices, not oil production. International Energy Agency member states agree to release a record 400 million barrels of strategic reserve oil, including 172 million barrels from the United States
However, it will take at least four months to extract the oil from storage. While planned emergency releases have helped prevent oil prices from hitting record highs, the crude benchmark is still hovering near $100 a barrel, up nearly 70% from the start of the year.
The average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline is $3.80 and rising in the United States — up nearly 40% since January’s lows — but that’s nothing compared to Asian countries, which are suffering from much higher prices, long lines at the pump, school closures and shortened work hours due to greater reliance on Middle Eastern oil and Qatari gas.
The most successful approach so far has been for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to divert as much oil flow as possible away from the Strait of Hormuz via the Saudi Arabian East-West Pipeline and the Emirati Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline.
Still, nearly 14 million barrels of oil per day are blocked, according to energy analysts.
“If these pipelines were attacked, it could be much worse,” Monardi said.
On March 16, an Iranian drone strike struck Fujairah, but not the pipeline itself, temporarily halting oil loading operations.
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Even if Venezuela’s supplies don’t help solve the global energy crisis, the country’s oil and gas industry is rapidly making significant progress, analysts say.
Monardi said overall growth in South American oil and gas could ultimately help the world become less reliant on Middle Eastern supplies.
“In the long term, the oil market does face risks if Venezuelan production increases significantly,” he said, citing other major oil producers. “Venezuela, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina stay away from these geopolitical conflicts.”
Venezuela still has the largest proven oil reserves in the world on paper. But the shabby industry, which peaked decades ago with production approaching 4 million barrels, requires far more than $100 billion in investment to even come close to its past glory. This will take several years to bear fruit.
“Production is rising, but gradually. Venezuela doesn’t have a secret oil reservoir that it can tap into and immediately release hundreds of thousands of barrels a day,” Ferreira said. “The potential is there, but it will take years of hard work.”
Momentum is building as Venezuela passes new laws to open the industry to outside investment. Chevron, the only U.S. producer not to abandon the country during asset seizures, has agreed to expand its largest project in Venezuela’s oil-rich Orinoco belt.
In addition, Shell plans to develop areas with higher natural gas content in Venezuela – both onshore and offshore, which would be closer to Trinidad.
ExxonMobil plans to send a small team to Venezuela to assess the situation, even though Chief Executive Darren Woods said in January that Venezuela was currently “uninvestable” unless major reforms were implemented, drawing the ire of President Donald Trump.
Ferreira said the ongoing political transition under acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez is currently going as smoothly as possible. Change should continue, culminating in elections.
“People who have been to Caracas say it’s open for business,” he said.
