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According to the Financial Times, as part of the recently reached trade arrangement between the United States and Taiwan, Taiwanese companies, including TSMC, will invest $250 billion in the United States in exchange for exemptions from potential chip tariffs. However, the limited disclosure surrounding the terms of this commitment creates significant uncertainty about TSMC’s future capital expenditures, manufacturing configuration and long-term strategy. Meanwhile, market rumors suggest that TSMC may invest an additional $100 billion in its U.S. factories, bringing its total investment commitments to $265 billion, making the company one of the largest investors in U.S. history.
The $250 billion figure largely reflects previously announced plans, with TSMC expected to be the largest spender. The company has invested $165 billion in its Fab 21 campus in Arizona, which includes six fab modules, two advanced packaging facilities and an R&D center. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that approximately $100 billion of TSMC’s existing commitments is included in the total investment. TSMC’s supply chain partners are expected to contribute approximately $30 billion. According to market rumors, TSMC may invest an additional US$100 billion to build four more fab modules in Arizona to avoid tariffs. TSMC’s recent acquisition of approximately 900 acres adjacent to its existing 1,100-acre site supports the possibility of such an expansion.
Other Taiwanese companies, including Foxconn, are expanding U.S. capacity to assemble artificial intelligence servers, although the projects are much less capital intensive and are not expected to total more than $20 billion, according to the Financial Times.
The arrangement reportedly allows companies building facilities in the United States to import chips duty-free at 2.5 times planned capacity during construction, with the quota reduced to 1.5 times capacity once production begins, according to the Financial Times. Analysts say temporary rules allowing higher duty-free imports will expire once the new factory is completed. After 2032, this may leave TSMC without enough capacity in the United States to guarantee all shipments to U.S. customers tariff-free, which is why the company may need to build more fabs around 2035 to maintain full tariff-free coverage. financial times.
Even if the Arizona fab eventually reaches its theoretical capacity (10 fab modules, at least two advanced packaging facilities and an R&D center), TSMC’s U.S. presence will still be far smaller than its presence in Taiwan. Currently, TSMC expects that 30% of its N2 (2-nanometer) and more advanced process technology chips will be manufactured in the United States. Taiwan officials reject suggestions that 40% – 50% of Taiwan’s semiconductor production could be moved overseas, particularly to the United States
